Intro. The State of the Election: New Jersey- One of the first of many states to shift permanently into the Democratic column after the Reagan presidency
For the next 107 days, I will try to cover all 50 states and how the regions in that respective state has voted and will likely vote in November. The order of the states is completely random, which is why I am starting out with New Jersey. I will ask the following questions and then attempt to give my best answer-
1. How has (this state) voted in the past, and how do the different regions of (this state) vote?
2. Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in (this state)'s political leanings?
3. When was the last time a Republican carried (this state) and how did he do it?
4. When was the last time a Democrat carried (this state) and how did he/she do it?
5. If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
6. So who will win (this state)?
So let's begin.
How has New Jersey voted in the past, and how do the different regions of this state vote?
Most New Jerseyans now struggle to remember the last time their state voted for a Republican president. While New Jersey is not part of the heavily Democratic New England region, it is almost as reliably Democratic as most New England states and is usually called for the Democratic candidate as soon as the polls close there. In addition, a modest number of New Jersey counties are reliably Republican, unlike states like Massachusetts, Vermont, or Connecticut (and a few others) where almost all if not all of the counties vote for the Democratic candidate.
Although some people try and create more, there are four basic regions of New Jersey, as shown on this map here-
The first region, the Ridge and Valley area, is the least populated region. As the name indicates, the terrain here is very hilly and actually has some small mountains, namely, the Kittatinny mountain range. The highest peak in New Jersey, appropriately named High Point, is located in this mountain range and in this region and is slightly taller than the One World Trade center in Manhattan.
The majority of voters in this region are Republicans. This region covers most of Sussex county and about half of neighboring Warren county. Sussex county has consistently voted for the Republican candidate since 1920, except for Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Warren county voted thrice for FDR in 1932, 1936, and 1940, but failed to back him in 1944 and has voted Republican in every election since then, except for 1964. In fact, I should answer the question as to if Barry Goldwater was able to win a single county in the state I am covering, and if so, which county(s)? In New Jersey's case, the answer is zero counties.
The Highlands region is fairly similar to the valley and ridge region in terms of how they vote. It comprises of the other half of Warren county, the much more sparsely populated and more conservative northern half of Passaic county, most of Morris county (more on that county in a bit), a small piece of very conservative Hunterdon county (which, aside from 1964, last supported a Democrat in 1936), and small slivers of Somerset and Bergen counties. As the name describes, the terrain here is hilly, but not mountainous for the most part.
The Piedmont region is where the bulk of the Democratic votes come from. "Piedmont" is defined as "a gentle slope leading from the base of mountains to a region of flat land". This makes sense, as this region can be described as a valley. The majority of the state's population lives in this region; the heavily populated Bergen, Essex, and Hudson county all lie entirely in this region. The most heavily populated county in New Jersey is Bergen County, which one could say is part of the suburban outskirts of New York City and has been a reliably Democratic stronghold since the 90's. Bergen county is perhaps the most interesting county in New Jersey. The county is very diverse in terms of its demographics and also in its geography. The northernmost areas of Bergen county are hilly and largely covered by forests, which is a far cry from the southern part of the county, which has largely been industrialized. The Meadowlands arenas, such as the Izod center and Metlife Stadium are located in this area of the county. The two most notable towns in Bergen county are Alpine, which is one of the wealthiest towns in America, and Paramus, which is one of the biggest shopping hubs in America.
Passaic county too is a reliably Democratic county, as it is home to the city of Paterson, which has a very high percentage of black people, as well as the heavily populated towns of Wayne, Clifton, Totowa, and several others. Passaic county can be split into two parts- the northern area is mostly forests and is sparsely populated. People in this area usually vote Republican. The heavily Democratic southern part of Passaic county is where Paterson and the other heavily populated towns are.
South of Passaic county is Essex county, which is home to Newark. As expected, Essex county is a Democratic bastion as well, being the only New Jersey county to support Walter Mondale in 1984. Due east of Essex county is Hudson county, which is essentially a spillover of Manhattan. Hudson county is home to Jersey City, Hoboken, Weehawken, North Bergen, Bayonne, and several other heavily populated towns. Being right next to New York city, Hudson county has not voted Republican since 1984. Southeast of Hudson county and south of Essex county is Union county, which also is solidly in the Democratic column. Union county last voted Republican in 1988. The largest city in Union county is Elizabeth. South of Union county is Middlesex county, which also last supported a Republican in 1988. The Piedmont region partially covers Mercer county, which is home to Trenton and is another reliably Democratic county. The last county that lies within the Piedmont region is that of Somerset county, which only became a Democratic leaning county recently. Barack Obama flipped the historically red county in 2008, and it has not flipped back since. The growth of Franklin township is one of the main causes of Somerset county's blue shift.
The last region, and the largest in terms of land area is the Atlantic Coastal Plains. The region covers the entire southern half of New Jersey. Some of the counties here are reliably Democratic, such as Atlantic county (home to Atlantic city), and Camden county (home to the city of Camden). Two other counties that are reliably Democratic are Cumberland county and Burlington county. However, Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May counties have been Republican strongholds, although Monmouth county voted for Clinton in 1996 and Gore in 2000. The remaining two counties are perhaps the only swing counties in New Jersey at the present time- Gloucester and Salem county were two counties that Donald Trump flipped in 2016, but it not particularly likely he will carry both of them again.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in New Jersey's political leanings?
This is where the aforementioned Morris county comes into play. Although it has always been a Republican stronghold, Hillary Clinton came unusually close to winning it in 2016. This could be attributed to the high number of voters who opted for a third party candidate, but it will be interesting to see if Biden could possibly flip it this November. If Trump manages to win Gloucester and Salem counties again, it will perhaps solidify them as Republican counties. However, on the presidential level, New Jersey's party loyalty will be unwaveringly Democratic for the foreseeable future.
When was the last time a Republican carried (this state) and how did he do it?
As seen in the map above, George H.W. Bush easily won New Jersey in 1988 over Michael Dukakis. All but three counties voted for Bush; Essex, Hudson, and Mercer county voted for Dukakis. The key to Bush's victory was running up huge margins in high population counties like Bergen, Passaic, Union, and Middlesex. 1988 was the last time a Republican received at least 200,000 votes in Bergen county, at least 80,000 votes in Passaic county, and at least 100,000 votes in Union county. The number of Republican votes in Passaic county has plateued at around 70,000 since then, while the number of Democratic votes has grown from around 70,000 to well over 100,000 since then. The margins in Bergen and Union county have also pretty much reversed themselves since 1988. As such, with the heavily populated New York city suburban outskirts shifting overwhelmingly Democratic and without enough conservative rural areas to counter that, it is easy to see why every Democrat since Bill Clinton has carried the state. Although George Bush made noise about contesting this state against John Kerry in 2004, Kerry still was declared the winner as soon as the polls closed. No Republican has tried to flip New Jersey since then, and president Trump will not either.
When was the last time a Democrat carried (this state) and how did he/she do it?
Hillary Clinton won New Jersey easily in 2016, despite failing to carry two counties that had previously voted for Obama. The formula was the same- run up huge margins in the big cities like Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, and a few others, and ensure that the surrounding suburbs follow suit. A good way to see this visually is with this tree map from the 2016 election-
If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
When it comes to the Senate, New Jersey is just as blue as it is in presidential races. No Republican has won a Senate race in New Jersey in nearly 50 years, and that is not at all likely to change. Even Senator Bob Menendez, who faced a corruption trial and was admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee, was easily reelected in 2018 despite a very aggressive campaign from his opponent, Bob Hugin. Up until very recently, Republicans had more success in the House of Representatives when it came to New Jersey. After the 2010 redistricting, New Jersey lost a seat, which gave the state 12 representatives instead of 13. For 6 years, Republicans and Democrats both occupied 6 seats apiece. Democrats held the districts that encompassed the urban areas in the northeastern areas- 6,8,9,10, and 12 (which is where Trenton is) as well as the District 1, which covers the city of Camden as well as most of Camden county. Then, in 2016, moderate Democrat Josh Gottheimer managed to unseat right wing extremist Scott Garrett in a close race in the 5th district. New Jersey's 5th is a district that warps around the northern borders of the state; it covers the state's entire northern border with New York and part of the western border with Pennsylvania. Gottheimer was elected mostly with the votes from northern Bergen county, as the remaining areas (northern Passaic county, most of Sussex and Warren counties) are much more conservative and mostly supported Garrett. Here is a map of the districts-
In 2018, 4 of the 5 remaining Republicans were toppled in what was a very successful year for Democrats. The one district that remained in Republican control is District 4, which is situated around mostly conservative Monmouth county and parts of norther Ocean county. However, congressman Jeff Van Drew of District 2 (which covers the southernmost chunk of the state) became a Republican in earlier this year. Whether or not he will be reelected as a Republican despite running initially as a Democrat is unknown, but if the anti-Trump fervor is as strong this November as it was in 2018, Van Drew could be ousted. In addition, it should be noted that Districts 7 and 11, the two districts that cover Morris county both ousted their Republican incumbents. District 7 covers all of Hunterdon county as well, which means that Biden could potentially pull off a surprise in what is usually a solidly red county.
Finally, let's talk about the past gubernatorial elections, because this is the only statewide race where Republicans have had success with in recent years. Indeed, no Democratic governor in New Jersey has ever been reelected in several decades. Republican governors, on the other hand, have almost always been reelected. After narrowly unseating unpopular Democratic governor Jon Corzine in 2009, Chris Christie cruised to a crushing reelection in 2013. He won every county, except for Hudson and Essex. While this was an impressive feat for a Republican in a blue state, one has to also acknowledge that Christie also benefited from very low enthusiasm from Democrats coupled with extremely low voter turnout. In the Senate special election to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg that was held only couple weeks earlier, former Newark mayor Cory Booker generated much greater enthusiasm and sailed into an easy victory over his Republican opponent. Here is the comparison- look at this municipality map of the 2013 Senate special election-
Although a greater land area of towns voted Republican, Booker won in all of the urban areas and most of the suburbs. Now take a look at the gubernatorial election that took place only a couple weeks afterwards-
Quite a difference, right? Looking at those two elections, it would seem as though years, if not decades would have to pass for a state to change political leanings like that, not only weeks.
Christie's popularity declined as a result of the Bridgegate scandal where two of his aides ordered several lanes of the George Washington bridge to be shut down and thus create enormous traffic jams, all in retribution to the Fort Lee mayor who declined to endorse him. Many people believed that Christie knew about what his aides were doing. In the summer of 2017, Christie was photographed sunning himself at a beach that was closed to the public because the state government was shut down. This caused his popularity levels to plummet even further, and thus propelled for Goldman Sachs executive and Germany ambassador Phil Murphy to easily defeat the Lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno; Guadagno's ties to Christie proved to be too much to overcome.
Regarding his reelection next year, Murphy could very well be the first Democratic governor in New Jersey to be reelected since the 70's. As of right now, New Jersey is one of the few states that has kept new COVID-19 cases at a minimum and could potentially be one of the first states to contain the virus completely. If the positive trends continue, Murphy will have a very strong platform to run on.
Let's conclude by showing a color-coded county map of New Jersey in which I will shade in counties blue or red depending on how likely they are to vote for either Biden or Trump. The deeper the shade of blue or red, the more likely that county is to vote for Biden or Trump, respectively. No color means the county is a tossup and could go either way-
1. How has (this state) voted in the past, and how do the different regions of (this state) vote?
2. Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in (this state)'s political leanings?
3. When was the last time a Republican carried (this state) and how did he do it?
4. When was the last time a Democrat carried (this state) and how did he/she do it?
5. If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
6. So who will win (this state)?
So let's begin.
How has New Jersey voted in the past, and how do the different regions of this state vote?
Most New Jerseyans now struggle to remember the last time their state voted for a Republican president. While New Jersey is not part of the heavily Democratic New England region, it is almost as reliably Democratic as most New England states and is usually called for the Democratic candidate as soon as the polls close there. In addition, a modest number of New Jersey counties are reliably Republican, unlike states like Massachusetts, Vermont, or Connecticut (and a few others) where almost all if not all of the counties vote for the Democratic candidate.
Although some people try and create more, there are four basic regions of New Jersey, as shown on this map here-
The first region, the Ridge and Valley area, is the least populated region. As the name indicates, the terrain here is very hilly and actually has some small mountains, namely, the Kittatinny mountain range. The highest peak in New Jersey, appropriately named High Point, is located in this mountain range and in this region and is slightly taller than the One World Trade center in Manhattan.
The majority of voters in this region are Republicans. This region covers most of Sussex county and about half of neighboring Warren county. Sussex county has consistently voted for the Republican candidate since 1920, except for Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide. Warren county voted thrice for FDR in 1932, 1936, and 1940, but failed to back him in 1944 and has voted Republican in every election since then, except for 1964. In fact, I should answer the question as to if Barry Goldwater was able to win a single county in the state I am covering, and if so, which county(s)? In New Jersey's case, the answer is zero counties.
The Highlands region is fairly similar to the valley and ridge region in terms of how they vote. It comprises of the other half of Warren county, the much more sparsely populated and more conservative northern half of Passaic county, most of Morris county (more on that county in a bit), a small piece of very conservative Hunterdon county (which, aside from 1964, last supported a Democrat in 1936), and small slivers of Somerset and Bergen counties. As the name describes, the terrain here is hilly, but not mountainous for the most part.
The Piedmont region is where the bulk of the Democratic votes come from. "Piedmont" is defined as "a gentle slope leading from the base of mountains to a region of flat land". This makes sense, as this region can be described as a valley. The majority of the state's population lives in this region; the heavily populated Bergen, Essex, and Hudson county all lie entirely in this region. The most heavily populated county in New Jersey is Bergen County, which one could say is part of the suburban outskirts of New York City and has been a reliably Democratic stronghold since the 90's. Bergen county is perhaps the most interesting county in New Jersey. The county is very diverse in terms of its demographics and also in its geography. The northernmost areas of Bergen county are hilly and largely covered by forests, which is a far cry from the southern part of the county, which has largely been industrialized. The Meadowlands arenas, such as the Izod center and Metlife Stadium are located in this area of the county. The two most notable towns in Bergen county are Alpine, which is one of the wealthiest towns in America, and Paramus, which is one of the biggest shopping hubs in America.
Passaic county too is a reliably Democratic county, as it is home to the city of Paterson, which has a very high percentage of black people, as well as the heavily populated towns of Wayne, Clifton, Totowa, and several others. Passaic county can be split into two parts- the northern area is mostly forests and is sparsely populated. People in this area usually vote Republican. The heavily Democratic southern part of Passaic county is where Paterson and the other heavily populated towns are.
South of Passaic county is Essex county, which is home to Newark. As expected, Essex county is a Democratic bastion as well, being the only New Jersey county to support Walter Mondale in 1984. Due east of Essex county is Hudson county, which is essentially a spillover of Manhattan. Hudson county is home to Jersey City, Hoboken, Weehawken, North Bergen, Bayonne, and several other heavily populated towns. Being right next to New York city, Hudson county has not voted Republican since 1984. Southeast of Hudson county and south of Essex county is Union county, which also is solidly in the Democratic column. Union county last voted Republican in 1988. The largest city in Union county is Elizabeth. South of Union county is Middlesex county, which also last supported a Republican in 1988. The Piedmont region partially covers Mercer county, which is home to Trenton and is another reliably Democratic county. The last county that lies within the Piedmont region is that of Somerset county, which only became a Democratic leaning county recently. Barack Obama flipped the historically red county in 2008, and it has not flipped back since. The growth of Franklin township is one of the main causes of Somerset county's blue shift.
The last region, and the largest in terms of land area is the Atlantic Coastal Plains. The region covers the entire southern half of New Jersey. Some of the counties here are reliably Democratic, such as Atlantic county (home to Atlantic city), and Camden county (home to the city of Camden). Two other counties that are reliably Democratic are Cumberland county and Burlington county. However, Monmouth, Ocean, and Cape May counties have been Republican strongholds, although Monmouth county voted for Clinton in 1996 and Gore in 2000. The remaining two counties are perhaps the only swing counties in New Jersey at the present time- Gloucester and Salem county were two counties that Donald Trump flipped in 2016, but it not particularly likely he will carry both of them again.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in New Jersey's political leanings?
This is where the aforementioned Morris county comes into play. Although it has always been a Republican stronghold, Hillary Clinton came unusually close to winning it in 2016. This could be attributed to the high number of voters who opted for a third party candidate, but it will be interesting to see if Biden could possibly flip it this November. If Trump manages to win Gloucester and Salem counties again, it will perhaps solidify them as Republican counties. However, on the presidential level, New Jersey's party loyalty will be unwaveringly Democratic for the foreseeable future.
When was the last time a Republican carried (this state) and how did he do it?
As seen in the map above, George H.W. Bush easily won New Jersey in 1988 over Michael Dukakis. All but three counties voted for Bush; Essex, Hudson, and Mercer county voted for Dukakis. The key to Bush's victory was running up huge margins in high population counties like Bergen, Passaic, Union, and Middlesex. 1988 was the last time a Republican received at least 200,000 votes in Bergen county, at least 80,000 votes in Passaic county, and at least 100,000 votes in Union county. The number of Republican votes in Passaic county has plateued at around 70,000 since then, while the number of Democratic votes has grown from around 70,000 to well over 100,000 since then. The margins in Bergen and Union county have also pretty much reversed themselves since 1988. As such, with the heavily populated New York city suburban outskirts shifting overwhelmingly Democratic and without enough conservative rural areas to counter that, it is easy to see why every Democrat since Bill Clinton has carried the state. Although George Bush made noise about contesting this state against John Kerry in 2004, Kerry still was declared the winner as soon as the polls closed. No Republican has tried to flip New Jersey since then, and president Trump will not either.
When was the last time a Democrat carried (this state) and how did he/she do it?
Hillary Clinton won New Jersey easily in 2016, despite failing to carry two counties that had previously voted for Obama. The formula was the same- run up huge margins in the big cities like Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, and a few others, and ensure that the surrounding suburbs follow suit. A good way to see this visually is with this tree map from the 2016 election-
If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
When it comes to the Senate, New Jersey is just as blue as it is in presidential races. No Republican has won a Senate race in New Jersey in nearly 50 years, and that is not at all likely to change. Even Senator Bob Menendez, who faced a corruption trial and was admonished by the Senate Ethics Committee, was easily reelected in 2018 despite a very aggressive campaign from his opponent, Bob Hugin. Up until very recently, Republicans had more success in the House of Representatives when it came to New Jersey. After the 2010 redistricting, New Jersey lost a seat, which gave the state 12 representatives instead of 13. For 6 years, Republicans and Democrats both occupied 6 seats apiece. Democrats held the districts that encompassed the urban areas in the northeastern areas- 6,8,9,10, and 12 (which is where Trenton is) as well as the District 1, which covers the city of Camden as well as most of Camden county. Then, in 2016, moderate Democrat Josh Gottheimer managed to unseat right wing extremist Scott Garrett in a close race in the 5th district. New Jersey's 5th is a district that warps around the northern borders of the state; it covers the state's entire northern border with New York and part of the western border with Pennsylvania. Gottheimer was elected mostly with the votes from northern Bergen county, as the remaining areas (northern Passaic county, most of Sussex and Warren counties) are much more conservative and mostly supported Garrett. Here is a map of the districts-
In 2018, 4 of the 5 remaining Republicans were toppled in what was a very successful year for Democrats. The one district that remained in Republican control is District 4, which is situated around mostly conservative Monmouth county and parts of norther Ocean county. However, congressman Jeff Van Drew of District 2 (which covers the southernmost chunk of the state) became a Republican in earlier this year. Whether or not he will be reelected as a Republican despite running initially as a Democrat is unknown, but if the anti-Trump fervor is as strong this November as it was in 2018, Van Drew could be ousted. In addition, it should be noted that Districts 7 and 11, the two districts that cover Morris county both ousted their Republican incumbents. District 7 covers all of Hunterdon county as well, which means that Biden could potentially pull off a surprise in what is usually a solidly red county.
Finally, let's talk about the past gubernatorial elections, because this is the only statewide race where Republicans have had success with in recent years. Indeed, no Democratic governor in New Jersey has ever been reelected in several decades. Republican governors, on the other hand, have almost always been reelected. After narrowly unseating unpopular Democratic governor Jon Corzine in 2009, Chris Christie cruised to a crushing reelection in 2013. He won every county, except for Hudson and Essex. While this was an impressive feat for a Republican in a blue state, one has to also acknowledge that Christie also benefited from very low enthusiasm from Democrats coupled with extremely low voter turnout. In the Senate special election to replace the late Senator Frank Lautenberg that was held only couple weeks earlier, former Newark mayor Cory Booker generated much greater enthusiasm and sailed into an easy victory over his Republican opponent. Here is the comparison- look at this municipality map of the 2013 Senate special election-
Although a greater land area of towns voted Republican, Booker won in all of the urban areas and most of the suburbs. Now take a look at the gubernatorial election that took place only a couple weeks afterwards-
Quite a difference, right? Looking at those two elections, it would seem as though years, if not decades would have to pass for a state to change political leanings like that, not only weeks.
Christie's popularity declined as a result of the Bridgegate scandal where two of his aides ordered several lanes of the George Washington bridge to be shut down and thus create enormous traffic jams, all in retribution to the Fort Lee mayor who declined to endorse him. Many people believed that Christie knew about what his aides were doing. In the summer of 2017, Christie was photographed sunning himself at a beach that was closed to the public because the state government was shut down. This caused his popularity levels to plummet even further, and thus propelled for Goldman Sachs executive and Germany ambassador Phil Murphy to easily defeat the Lieutenant governor, Kim Guadagno; Guadagno's ties to Christie proved to be too much to overcome.
Regarding his reelection next year, Murphy could very well be the first Democratic governor in New Jersey to be reelected since the 70's. As of right now, New Jersey is one of the few states that has kept new COVID-19 cases at a minimum and could potentially be one of the first states to contain the virus completely. If the positive trends continue, Murphy will have a very strong platform to run on.
Let's conclude by showing a color-coded county map of New Jersey in which I will shade in counties blue or red depending on how likely they are to vote for either Biden or Trump. The deeper the shade of blue or red, the more likely that county is to vote for Biden or Trump, respectively. No color means the county is a tossup and could go either way-
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