The State of the Election: Massachusetts- Every Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton has swept every county; Biden is very likely to do the same.

Deep in the heart of liberal New England, the Bay State has been the most resolutely Democratic state in the past 30 years. No Republican since George H.W. Bush has won a single county in a presidential election. Massachusetts is also famous for being the only state to support George McGovern in Nixon's 49 state landslide in 1972. Even in colonial times, Massachusetts has been known for its progressivism- the first shots of the American Revolution were fired here, Massachusetts was one of the first states to ban slavery, and the state is home to the most elite and prestigious colleges in the country. Massachusetts has produced numerous families who have created political dynasties- from the Adams (Samuel, John and John Quincy) family in the 1800s, to the Kennedy's and the Bush's in the 20th century. Although many Massachusetts politicians have attempted to become president, few have been successful. Perhaps curiously, no president from Massachusetts has ever been reelected to a second term- John Adams and his son both lost their reelection bids, Kennedy was assassinated, and George H.W. Bush also lost his reelection bid. 1988, 1992, 2004, and 2012 all saw "bay-staters" come up short in their presidential bids- albeit John Kerry (2004) and Mitt Romney (2012) were not native to the state; Romney was born in Michigan while Kerry was born in Colorado. 




 How has Massachusetts voted in the past, and how do the different counties/regions of Massachusetts vote?

It's common knowledge that Republicans have no chance in Massachusetts, at least at the presidential level. Since 1992, Republicans have failed to carry a single county, let alone the state. Massachusetts has 14 counties, all of which are ardently blue in presidential elections. As seen on this map below-

Massachusetts has 12 counties on the mainland, plus two island counties off the southern coast of Cape Cod. The westernmost county, Berkshire county, last voted Republican in 1984. Even popular Republican governors in Massachusetts have struggled in this county. Hampshire county is home to Amherst, and has not voted Republican since Dwight Eisenhower was on the ballot. Hampden county is the most urban county in western Massachusetts, as it is home to Springfield. No Republican has won there since 1984. The same goes for Franklin county, although their turn to the left has been more recent than in other counties. Worcester county is the second most populated county in the state and is the largest by land area. While Democrats have won the county in every election since 1992, the margins are smaller than in other counties. Middlesex county is the most populated county in Massachusetts, as it covers much of the Boston metropolitan area and is also where Harvard is located. The towns of Lexington and Concotd, where the Revolutionary war began, are in this county as well. Democrats have routinely won this county since 1960, winning over 60% of the vote in each election since 1996. However, this pales in comparison to Suffolk county, where the core of Boston is situated. They have not voted Republican since 1924, and Hillary Clinton received nearly 80% of the vote here. Joe Biden could easily get over 80% this November. North of Suffolk county is Essex county, which last voted Republican in 1984. The same voting pattern applies to Norfolk county as well, including its two exclaves of Cohasset and Brookline. Plymouth county is technically the most competitive county in Massachusetts, with Hillary Clinton barely getting 50% of the vote in 2016, but it would be very surprising if Trump won this county. Clinton also only barely got the majority of votes in neighboring Bristol county, despite winning it by almost 10 points. Home to Fall River and in close proximity to Providence, Rhode Island, it would again be extremely surprising if Trump managed to win this county. Clinton didn't do much better in Barnstable county, which covers all of Cape Cod, although Trump couldn't even muster 40% of the vote (Mitt Romney got over 45% in 2012). That leaves the 2 island counties. Dukes county, home to Martha's Vineyard, and also to Ted Kennedy's infamous car crash in Chappaquiddick. Democrats have won over 70% of the vote here since 2004. Nantucket county, where many have summer homes, was a Republican stronghold up until 1988 when they supported their Governor, Michael Dukakis, over George H.W. Bush. Democrats now win over 60% of the vote in that county as well.

So there you have it. Every county in Massachusetts is solidly Democratic, and Trump winning any of them would probably be emblematic of a large reelection victory nationwide. In any case, however, the president cannot win Massachusetts.

Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Massachusetts' political leanings?

Although Trump narrowed the margins in some counties, he didn't come close to winning any of them. Hillary Clinton, like her husband did in 1992 and 1996, won every county, and Joe Biden is very likely to do the same.

When was the last time a Republican carried Massachusetts and how did he do it?

Even deep blue Massachusetts wasn't able to resist the charm and charisma of Ronald Reagan. Although Reagan's very narrow win there in 1980 can be attributed to John Anderson's strong third party performance, Reagan was able to win Massachusetts by 2.79 points over Walter Mondale in 1984, and that was without a strong third party. Indeed, even Massachusetts couldn't warm up to a candidate who openly admitted that he would raise taxes. 

The key to Reagan's victory was, first of all, was a very weak performance by Mondale in Suffolk county, where the Boston metro area is. Mondale won this county with only about 62% of the vote; every Democrat since Kerry in 2004 has managed to get at least 75% of the vote there. In addition, Mondale only barely edged out Reagan by less than 1% in Middlesex county, where Republicans presidential candidate nowadays struggle to get even a third of the vote and Trump couldn't even get 30%. No Republican has ever matched Reagan's 1984 performance in that county, percentage-wise and in raw votes. Reagan also won many of the now solidly Democratic blue collar suburban counties, such as Worcester, Berkshire, Essex, Norfolk and a few others, including a 20 point landslide win in Plymouth county. Mondale only managed to win Hampshire and Dukes counties in addition to Suffolk and Middlesex. Dukakis would flip most of Massachusetts' counties back to the Democratic column in 1988, and from 1992 onward, no Republican has won a single county in a presidential election.


 When was the last time a Democrat carried Massachusetts and how did he/she do it?

Hillary Clinton ran up enormous margins in Boston and all its surrounding suburbs, and easily won the rest of the suburban counties as well. The demographics of Massachusetts are not conducive for any Republican to win there, especially now.

If Massachusetts is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?

Almost entirely. For the longest time, Massachusetts' two Senators were men who were, and perhaps still are, familiar household names: Ted Kennedy and John Kerry. The younger brother of our 36th president was elected in 1962 in a special election to fill the vacancy his older brother created upon becoming president. Ted Kennedy served 7 terms, winning reelection by large margins each time. His 1994 opponent was Mitt Romney, who would go on to become Governor before running for president unsuccessfully in 2008 and 2012. Kennedy was handily reelected in 2006, but was diagnosed with brain cancer 2 years later. Kennedy passed away in August of 2009. The special election of 2010 attracted national attention. State Senator Scott Brown secured the Republican nomination, while Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley became the Democratic nominee. Brown positioned himself as a moderate Republican who supported many of President Obama's policies. Coakley took much more liberal positions than Brown, but many of her past controversies that involved seemingly poor judgment and work ethics caught up with her. Couple this with the fact that many wanted a change after decades-long control of the seat from Kennedy, and Brown managed to win narrowly. Brown's success deprived the Democrats of their filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. However, his success was short-lived. In 2012, Brown ran to get reelected to a full term. His opponent was Harvard professor Elizabeth Warren, who, despite having her share of controversies, was more popular than Coakley and led Brown in most of the polls. Although Brown fought hard to retain his seat, the presence of Barack Obama on the ticket ultimately proved to be too much for him to overcome in 2012, and Warren won by over 6 points. Her reelection in 2018 was far easier; she won by over 20 points. However, she didn't sweep every county; Plymouth county very narrowly supported her opponent, Geoff Diehl- a sign that the county is moving rightward. Her presidential bid in 2020 lasted longer than most other's did, but she too failed to gain any traction and couldn't even win her home state against Joe Biden. Perhaps Democrats are wary of nominating another Massachusetts intellectual to the presidency, as such people have never had much success winning the White House.

Case in point, take Senator John Kerry. A Vietnam War hero, he was first elected Senator in 1984, at the same time Reagan narrowly won the state in the presidential election. He won every reelection since then; Republicans didn't even bother fielding a candidate against him in 2002. As an aging statesman with almost 2 decades of experience serving as Massachusetts' Senator, Kerry launched his presidential bid 2003. Although he waged a tough campaign against President Bush, he ultimately came up short, winning 251 electoral votes to Bush's 286. Kerry's biggest problem was the Massachusetts liberal elitist image that he just couldn't shake off. Kerry also was known to flip-flop his positions on many critical issues, as famously shown in Bush's "windsurfing" ad. Kerry's success was limited to the culturally liberal northeast, economically liberal upper midwest, and socially liberal west coast. 2004 was the last time Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Virginia voted Republican. After losing the election, Kerry returned to the Senate, winning a huge landslide victory in 2008. After President Obama picked him to be Secretary of State in 2012, a second vacancy was created in Massachusetts. This time, however, Republicans were not successful in snagging the seat. Representative Ed Markey easily defeated his Republican opponent in 2013, and was reelected to a full term in 2014. Although Joseph Kennedy III, grand-nephew of the former president, is challenging his renomination, Markey still is very likely to be renominated and will thus win a second term with ease.

Massachusetts' congressional seats have all been occupied by Democrats for over 20 years. The last Republican to hold a seat was Peter Torkildsen from 1993 to 1997, in District 6. Although Massachusetts lost a district as a result of the 2010 redistricting, that has not affected the Democrats. Some of their representatives are noteworthy- Joseph Kennedy III represents the 4th District where Barney Frank previously served, progressive firebrand Ayanna Pressley represents District 7, and Seth Moulton, who recently launched a quixotic presidential bid, represents District 6. 

Like Maryland, Massachusetts is known for electing Republicans to run their state. 5 out of their last 6 governors have been Republicans, despite solid Democratic control of the state legislature, and all elected federal offices. Some of Massachusetts' recent governors should be very well-known to most people. Bill Weld, who was Gary Johnson's running mate for the Libertarian ticket in 2016 and recently attempted a long-shot bid to primary Trump, served from 1995 to 1999. Mitt Romney served as Governor from 2003 to 2007 before retiring in hopes of becoming president. When that failed to happen in 2008 and 2012, Romney remained active in politics, moving to Utah and getting elected Senator there. Very rarely does someone get elected statewide in a heavily liberal state, move to a heavily conservative state, and get elected to a statewide office there. The much more moderate Romney pulled it off because he is a Mormon, and Utah is known for it's heavy population of Mormons. This being said, all of Massachusetts' Republican Governors have been extremely moderate- their current Governor, Charlie Baker, supports environmentalism, abortion rights, gay marriage, and takes a number of other positions that would never be accepted in Trump's Republican party. As such, Baker has enjoyed high approval ratings in the state and was reelected in a landslide in 2018, winning every single county and almost winning the city of Boston. Baker only lost a handful of towns, such as Williamstown, New Marlboro, Sheffield, Alford, Egremont, Great Barrington, and several others. The fact that Baker was able to win reelection so easily at the same time Elizabeth Warren cruised to an easy landslide reelection as Senator shows that the people of Massachusetts are more than willing to split the ticket when there is a popular Republican. However, as Mitt Romney showed in 2012, the voters only want those Republicans running the state, not the country. It should be noted that Massachusetts does not hold the gubernatorial elections the same year as presidential elections, but even so, that wouldn't help the Republican presidential candidate in the state nearly as much as it would actually help the Democratic gubernatorial candidate. 

So who will win Massachusetts?

There's no question that Joe Biden will win Massachusetts, perhaps by an even greater margin than Hillary Clinton's victory there in 2016. The only thing to keep an eye on is to see if Trump can pull off a surprise in Plymouth county, which didn't support Elizabeth Warren in her 2018 reelection.