The State of the Election: West Virginia- An ancestrally Democratic state that has turned into a solidly Republican haven.
West Virginia provided Trump with a 42 point win 4 years ago- his second highest margin of victory in 2016 (Wyoming was first). The impact of COVID-19 has been very mild in West Virginia, unlike most of the other states on or near the east coast. Although winning by over 40 points again would be surprising, Trump is in a good position to win every county in the state once more- something Mitt Romney accomplished in 2012 as well. Perhaps the most populist state in the union, West Virginians clearly vote on which presidential candidate is specifically better for West Virginia, more than they vote for which candidate they feel is best for America. As such, Trump's strong populist message and his "Make America Great Again" slogan reverberated deeply through the West Virginia mountains.
How has West Virginia voted in the past, and how do the different regions of West Virginia vote?
Throughout the 20th century, West Virginia could be counted on to give their electoral votes to the Democratic nominee. Only in the massive Republican landslides in 1956, 1972, and 1984 did West Virginia vote red. Although McGovern got blown out in 1972, both Adlai Stevenson in 1956 and even Walter Mondale in 1984 performed reasonably well, winning their fair share of counties despite losing the state. West Virginia expressed a willingness to vote for northern Democrats, such as FDR, JFK, and even Michael Dukakis, as well as southern Democrats like LBJ, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. Their staunch loyalty to the Democratic party had almost everything to do with the coal industry, which has always formed the backbone of West Virginia's economy. The pro-union and seemingly pro-working class Democrats always seemed to come out on top over whom they considered to be the corporatist, elitist Republicans.
That all changed in 2000, when Al Gore's very liberal environmental platform turned off many coal workers in West Virginia. George W. Bush pounced on this opportunity and portrayed himself as a very pro-coal candidate, despite being a Republican. This paid off, and Bush narrowly won West Virginia. John Kerry fared even worse than Gore in 2004, with Bush winning the state by over 10 points. In 2008, Barack Obama didn't put much time or energy into West Virginia despite Bush's abysmal approval ratings and economic recession. Although Obama flipped neighboring Virginia for the first time since 1964, West Virginia's margins barely changed from 2004. Mitt Romney, despite some anti-coal positions in the past, won by over 25 points in 2012, sweeping every single county. Hillary Clinton's infamous "we're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business" quote further cemented her doom in a state that she probably could have won in 2008 had she ran against McCain.
It should be noted that West Virginia's populism ran strong in the Democratic primaries in 2016, when Bernie Sanders won every single county in the state. Despite his environmental policies being even less coal-friendly than Clinton's in many regards, West Virginians clearly viewed Sanders as someone who would truly fight for the entire American working class no matter what. To be clear, Trump still would have won West Virginia had Sanders been the Democratic nominee, but his margins would have been reduced- enough so that perhaps Sanders would have been able to win some counties that hadn't voted for Obama in 2012 or even in 2008.
Here is the regional map and the county map of West Virginia-
Since all of West Virginia votes Republican on the presidential level, it seems pointless to go over each region. However, different parts of West Virginia are still loyal to Democrats at the state level, particularly the areas surrounding Kanawha county (home to Charleston), as well as the northern areas as well. The last time any Democratic presidential candidate won any counties in West Virginia was Barack Obama in 2008. In addition to Kanawha county, he also won Boone county, which is part of the Charleston suburbs, Monongalia county, which is home to Morgantown, McDowell county, Marion county (part of the Morgantown suburbs), Jefferson county, which is close to the Washington D.C. metro area, Braxton county, and Webster county. These last few Democratic holdouts have all swung hard to the right since 2008 as well. There have been a few Republican counties that have been way ahead of the times as well. The most notable of these counties is Grant county, which has voted Republican in every election since 1916, even in 1964 for Goldwater. Goldwater also won 3 other ancestrally Republican counties in West Virginia- Morgan, Ritchie, and Tyler counties (although Clinton won Tyler county in 1996).
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in West Virginia's political leanings?
By giving Trump a 42 point margin of victory, and wholly rejecting Barack Obama twice, West Virginians made it clear that they have lost all faith in the Democratic party, at least at the presidential level. Although he will probably perform slightly better than Hillary Clinton, Biden too is part of the Obama coalition that the state rejected and Trump should have no trouble at all sweeping every county.
When was the last time a Republican carried West Virginia and how did he do it?
Trump's populist message, combined with Hillary Clinton's infamous comment about putting coal miners out of business, enabled him to win West Virginia by over 40 points.
When was the last time a Democrat carried West Virginia and how did he/she do it?
Before the Democratic party adopted pro-environmental positions, coal miners were staunchly Democratic voters. This enabled Bill Clinton to easily win the state in 1996. Bob Dole was already a very weak opponent, and he made no real effort to appeal to the coal workers.
If West Virginia is safely red on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Not entirely, believe it or not. It's hard to fathom that a state that gave Trump a 42 point victory in 2016 still has respect for Democrats. However, keep in mind that West Virginia was devoutly loyal to the Democratic party for the better part of 100 years. For many years, their two senators were Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller. Byrd was elected in 1956 and served until 2010, when he passed away 4 years into his 9th term. Despite his checkered past that involved the KKK, West Virginians clearly trusted Byrd to lead them, even when popular Republicans occupied the White House. Byrd served for over 25 years alongside Jay Rockefeller, who great-grandfather was the famous oil tycoon. Rockefeller had previously served as governor. Rockefeller retired in 2014, but it may have been possible that he would have lost his reelection bid despite winning reelections in huge landslides each time before. Rockefeller, who announced his support for gay marriage, supported Obamacare, and was a supporter of President Obama (whom most West Virginians disliked) would have likely been made very vulnerable. The Republican candidate, former Representative Shelley Moore Capito, whose father served as governor, easily won the 2014 election and replaced Rockefeller in 2014. Her reelection in November should also come easily without any bumps in the road.
But back to Byrd- his death in 2010 prompted then-governor Joe Manchin to step down and fill his seat. Manchin easily won reelection in 2012, winning all but 3 counties, despite Mitt Romney triumphing over Obama in every single county at the same time. The fact that so many West Virginians were willing to vote for a Republican presidential candidate while simultaneously voting for a Democratic Senator shows that they still have respect for certain Democrats whom they feel represent them.
In 2016, after Trump's 42 point victory, Senator Manchin was considered to be a sitting duck. It seemed all but certain that he would be forced out in 2018. However, Manchin didn't give in to this sentiment. To appeal to his constituents, Manchin has been easily the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. He has praised President Trump numerous times and has said that he is easier to work with than President Obama. He voted to confirm most of Trump's cabinet and judicial appointees, including Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Manchin was the only Democrat to vote to confirm Kavanaugh. Although some Democrats wonder why he doesn't just switch parties, Manchin is still more liberal when it comes to other issues. He has softened his pro-gun stance over the years, enough so that the NRA no longer gives him favorable ratings. He also is a staunch supporter of Obamacare, largely because he is well aware of the many health hazards and repercussions that coal miners have to reckon with. Despite his attempt to garner bipartisan appeal, Manchin was still in for the fight of his life in 2018. However, Manchin beat the odds and did the impossible: he won reelection by 3 points in 2018, signifying a swing of over 40% of Trump voters toward him. In his victory speech, Manchin said that never before had the Democratic party won in a Senate election in a state that had voted Republican by over 40 points in a presidential election 2 years earlier, or vice versa. Whether or not this is actually true, or if Manchin was just trying to excite his crowd of supporters, is unclear.
So how did Manchin do it? First of all, he already had many supporters that were Trump voters. Many of those Trump-Manchin voters simply voted for Trump out of hatred for Hillary and her anti-West Virginia comments. Couple this with Manchin's willingness to break ranks with his party and support the president and he was able to win back a lot of voters. Secondly, his challenger, the West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, was not a very strong opponent, all things considered. Morrisey has spent most of his life in New Jersey and has only become involved with West Virginia recently. Manchin, in comparison, has spent his entire life in West Virginia and his family has a history there as well.
However, one cannot avoid giving Morrisey credit for trying. Morrisey tried very hard to appeal to the conservative faithful in West Virginia. President Trump rallied for him and Morrisey thus constantly tied himself to the president. Morrisey attempted to portray Manchin as a liberal extremist, but the attacks didn't stick hard enough. When debating Manchin, Morrisey constantly evoked Hillary Clinton and tried to make it so that Senator Manchin and Hillary Clinton were one and the same. However, Morrisey didn't really have an effective answer on how West Virginians would get affordable health care if Obamacare was done away with, and struggled to give concrete answers to other questions as well. Manchin's victory truly symbolizes how West Virginians vote solely on who they think is best for their state, not who they think is best for the country. This is why the pro-Trump Morrisey lost to Joe Manchin- someone who voters thought was pro-West Virginia. Morrisey, despite his narrow loss, couldn't even win his hometown of Jefferson county.
West Virginia's 3 congressional districts also have fallen to the Republicans after being in Democratic control for what seemed like an eternity. Future Senator Shelley Moore Capito won District 2 in 2002, District 1 ousted their Democratic incumbent in 2010, followed by District 3 in 2014. None of those seats are considered to be competitive anymore. In 2014, both chambers of the state legislature flipped red as well.
When it comes to the governor, West Virginia also still has some respect for the Democratic party. Although a few Republicans have been elected Governor of West Virginia, most of West Virginia's governors have been Democrats, at least since the New Deal. The current occupant, Jim Justice, ran for governor on the Democratic ticket in 2016. He won the election, despite Trump simultaneously winning West Virginia by 42 points. Justice was a well known figure in West Virginia, as he was asnd is the wealthiest person in the state. This also greatly exemplifies how West Virginians are willing to split their votes between parties. In the summer of 2017, however, Justice announced that he was switching to the Republican party. His reelection in November should be very easy, despite his change of party loyalty.
6. So who will win West Virginia?
Despite the huge Republican successes in recent years, the majority of West Virginians clearly do not walk into the voting booth, quickly check off all the Republican candidates running for office, and thus be in and out within 10 seconds. They clearly take their time to vote, looking at each candidate clearly and carefully before checking off his or her name. So many West Virginians walked into the voting booth in 2016, voted for Trump, but also voted for Jim Justice, a Democrat, for Governor. The same has held true in all the other recent presidential elections and midterm elections, particularly in 2018 when so many Trump voters voted for Senator Joe Manchin while simultaneously voting for their Republican Congressperson. Although West Virginians may not vote Republican all up and down the ticket, their minds are pretty much made up when it comes to who they want as president. Even in the event of the most devastating electoral landslide for Joe Biden, West Virginia's 5 electoral votes will be safely in Trump's column. Almost every county should be a lock for the president, as seen below.
How has West Virginia voted in the past, and how do the different regions of West Virginia vote?
Throughout the 20th century, West Virginia could be counted on to give their electoral votes to the Democratic nominee. Only in the massive Republican landslides in 1956, 1972, and 1984 did West Virginia vote red. Although McGovern got blown out in 1972, both Adlai Stevenson in 1956 and even Walter Mondale in 1984 performed reasonably well, winning their fair share of counties despite losing the state. West Virginia expressed a willingness to vote for northern Democrats, such as FDR, JFK, and even Michael Dukakis, as well as southern Democrats like LBJ, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. Their staunch loyalty to the Democratic party had almost everything to do with the coal industry, which has always formed the backbone of West Virginia's economy. The pro-union and seemingly pro-working class Democrats always seemed to come out on top over whom they considered to be the corporatist, elitist Republicans.
That all changed in 2000, when Al Gore's very liberal environmental platform turned off many coal workers in West Virginia. George W. Bush pounced on this opportunity and portrayed himself as a very pro-coal candidate, despite being a Republican. This paid off, and Bush narrowly won West Virginia. John Kerry fared even worse than Gore in 2004, with Bush winning the state by over 10 points. In 2008, Barack Obama didn't put much time or energy into West Virginia despite Bush's abysmal approval ratings and economic recession. Although Obama flipped neighboring Virginia for the first time since 1964, West Virginia's margins barely changed from 2004. Mitt Romney, despite some anti-coal positions in the past, won by over 25 points in 2012, sweeping every single county. Hillary Clinton's infamous "we're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business" quote further cemented her doom in a state that she probably could have won in 2008 had she ran against McCain.
It should be noted that West Virginia's populism ran strong in the Democratic primaries in 2016, when Bernie Sanders won every single county in the state. Despite his environmental policies being even less coal-friendly than Clinton's in many regards, West Virginians clearly viewed Sanders as someone who would truly fight for the entire American working class no matter what. To be clear, Trump still would have won West Virginia had Sanders been the Democratic nominee, but his margins would have been reduced- enough so that perhaps Sanders would have been able to win some counties that hadn't voted for Obama in 2012 or even in 2008.
Here is the regional map and the county map of West Virginia-
Since all of West Virginia votes Republican on the presidential level, it seems pointless to go over each region. However, different parts of West Virginia are still loyal to Democrats at the state level, particularly the areas surrounding Kanawha county (home to Charleston), as well as the northern areas as well. The last time any Democratic presidential candidate won any counties in West Virginia was Barack Obama in 2008. In addition to Kanawha county, he also won Boone county, which is part of the Charleston suburbs, Monongalia county, which is home to Morgantown, McDowell county, Marion county (part of the Morgantown suburbs), Jefferson county, which is close to the Washington D.C. metro area, Braxton county, and Webster county. These last few Democratic holdouts have all swung hard to the right since 2008 as well. There have been a few Republican counties that have been way ahead of the times as well. The most notable of these counties is Grant county, which has voted Republican in every election since 1916, even in 1964 for Goldwater. Goldwater also won 3 other ancestrally Republican counties in West Virginia- Morgan, Ritchie, and Tyler counties (although Clinton won Tyler county in 1996).
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in West Virginia's political leanings?
By giving Trump a 42 point margin of victory, and wholly rejecting Barack Obama twice, West Virginians made it clear that they have lost all faith in the Democratic party, at least at the presidential level. Although he will probably perform slightly better than Hillary Clinton, Biden too is part of the Obama coalition that the state rejected and Trump should have no trouble at all sweeping every county.
When was the last time a Republican carried West Virginia and how did he do it?
Trump's populist message, combined with Hillary Clinton's infamous comment about putting coal miners out of business, enabled him to win West Virginia by over 40 points.
When was the last time a Democrat carried West Virginia and how did he/she do it?
Before the Democratic party adopted pro-environmental positions, coal miners were staunchly Democratic voters. This enabled Bill Clinton to easily win the state in 1996. Bob Dole was already a very weak opponent, and he made no real effort to appeal to the coal workers.
If West Virginia is safely red on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Not entirely, believe it or not. It's hard to fathom that a state that gave Trump a 42 point victory in 2016 still has respect for Democrats. However, keep in mind that West Virginia was devoutly loyal to the Democratic party for the better part of 100 years. For many years, their two senators were Robert Byrd and Jay Rockefeller. Byrd was elected in 1956 and served until 2010, when he passed away 4 years into his 9th term. Despite his checkered past that involved the KKK, West Virginians clearly trusted Byrd to lead them, even when popular Republicans occupied the White House. Byrd served for over 25 years alongside Jay Rockefeller, who great-grandfather was the famous oil tycoon. Rockefeller had previously served as governor. Rockefeller retired in 2014, but it may have been possible that he would have lost his reelection bid despite winning reelections in huge landslides each time before. Rockefeller, who announced his support for gay marriage, supported Obamacare, and was a supporter of President Obama (whom most West Virginians disliked) would have likely been made very vulnerable. The Republican candidate, former Representative Shelley Moore Capito, whose father served as governor, easily won the 2014 election and replaced Rockefeller in 2014. Her reelection in November should also come easily without any bumps in the road.
But back to Byrd- his death in 2010 prompted then-governor Joe Manchin to step down and fill his seat. Manchin easily won reelection in 2012, winning all but 3 counties, despite Mitt Romney triumphing over Obama in every single county at the same time. The fact that so many West Virginians were willing to vote for a Republican presidential candidate while simultaneously voting for a Democratic Senator shows that they still have respect for certain Democrats whom they feel represent them.
In 2016, after Trump's 42 point victory, Senator Manchin was considered to be a sitting duck. It seemed all but certain that he would be forced out in 2018. However, Manchin didn't give in to this sentiment. To appeal to his constituents, Manchin has been easily the most conservative Democrat in the Senate. He has praised President Trump numerous times and has said that he is easier to work with than President Obama. He voted to confirm most of Trump's cabinet and judicial appointees, including Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh. Manchin was the only Democrat to vote to confirm Kavanaugh. Although some Democrats wonder why he doesn't just switch parties, Manchin is still more liberal when it comes to other issues. He has softened his pro-gun stance over the years, enough so that the NRA no longer gives him favorable ratings. He also is a staunch supporter of Obamacare, largely because he is well aware of the many health hazards and repercussions that coal miners have to reckon with. Despite his attempt to garner bipartisan appeal, Manchin was still in for the fight of his life in 2018. However, Manchin beat the odds and did the impossible: he won reelection by 3 points in 2018, signifying a swing of over 40% of Trump voters toward him. In his victory speech, Manchin said that never before had the Democratic party won in a Senate election in a state that had voted Republican by over 40 points in a presidential election 2 years earlier, or vice versa. Whether or not this is actually true, or if Manchin was just trying to excite his crowd of supporters, is unclear.
So how did Manchin do it? First of all, he already had many supporters that were Trump voters. Many of those Trump-Manchin voters simply voted for Trump out of hatred for Hillary and her anti-West Virginia comments. Couple this with Manchin's willingness to break ranks with his party and support the president and he was able to win back a lot of voters. Secondly, his challenger, the West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, was not a very strong opponent, all things considered. Morrisey has spent most of his life in New Jersey and has only become involved with West Virginia recently. Manchin, in comparison, has spent his entire life in West Virginia and his family has a history there as well.
However, one cannot avoid giving Morrisey credit for trying. Morrisey tried very hard to appeal to the conservative faithful in West Virginia. President Trump rallied for him and Morrisey thus constantly tied himself to the president. Morrisey attempted to portray Manchin as a liberal extremist, but the attacks didn't stick hard enough. When debating Manchin, Morrisey constantly evoked Hillary Clinton and tried to make it so that Senator Manchin and Hillary Clinton were one and the same. However, Morrisey didn't really have an effective answer on how West Virginians would get affordable health care if Obamacare was done away with, and struggled to give concrete answers to other questions as well. Manchin's victory truly symbolizes how West Virginians vote solely on who they think is best for their state, not who they think is best for the country. This is why the pro-Trump Morrisey lost to Joe Manchin- someone who voters thought was pro-West Virginia. Morrisey, despite his narrow loss, couldn't even win his hometown of Jefferson county.
West Virginia's 3 congressional districts also have fallen to the Republicans after being in Democratic control for what seemed like an eternity. Future Senator Shelley Moore Capito won District 2 in 2002, District 1 ousted their Democratic incumbent in 2010, followed by District 3 in 2014. None of those seats are considered to be competitive anymore. In 2014, both chambers of the state legislature flipped red as well.
When it comes to the governor, West Virginia also still has some respect for the Democratic party. Although a few Republicans have been elected Governor of West Virginia, most of West Virginia's governors have been Democrats, at least since the New Deal. The current occupant, Jim Justice, ran for governor on the Democratic ticket in 2016. He won the election, despite Trump simultaneously winning West Virginia by 42 points. Justice was a well known figure in West Virginia, as he was asnd is the wealthiest person in the state. This also greatly exemplifies how West Virginians are willing to split their votes between parties. In the summer of 2017, however, Justice announced that he was switching to the Republican party. His reelection in November should be very easy, despite his change of party loyalty.
6. So who will win West Virginia?
Despite the huge Republican successes in recent years, the majority of West Virginians clearly do not walk into the voting booth, quickly check off all the Republican candidates running for office, and thus be in and out within 10 seconds. They clearly take their time to vote, looking at each candidate clearly and carefully before checking off his or her name. So many West Virginians walked into the voting booth in 2016, voted for Trump, but also voted for Jim Justice, a Democrat, for Governor. The same has held true in all the other recent presidential elections and midterm elections, particularly in 2018 when so many Trump voters voted for Senator Joe Manchin while simultaneously voting for their Republican Congressperson. Although West Virginians may not vote Republican all up and down the ticket, their minds are pretty much made up when it comes to who they want as president. Even in the event of the most devastating electoral landslide for Joe Biden, West Virginia's 5 electoral votes will be safely in Trump's column. Almost every county should be a lock for the president, as seen below.
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