The State of the Election: Maryland- Easily the most liberal of states where the majority of individual counties vote Republican.
As the title says, the majority of Maryland's counties vote Republican, but the few that vote Democratic are the ones that comprise of the majority of Maryland's population. Hillary Clinton won Maryland by over 26 points in 2016, and Joe Biden seems likely to push that margin to upwards of 30 points or higher.
How has (this state) voted in the past, and how do the different regions of (this state) vote?
Maryland is one of the the safest states for Democrats. Like Delaware and New Jersey, they have voted for the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 1992. They were also one of the few states to back Jimmy Carter in 1980. In recent decades, Maryland has only voted Republican in the landslide elections of 1952, 1956, 1972, 1984, and 1988. They also backed Thomas Dewey over Harry Truman in 1948. However, large influxes of immigrants as well as African Americans moving into the D.C. suburbs have pushed the state decisively into the Democratic column.
Maryland has 5 regions, as shown here on this map-
Let's start at the pan-handle and go rightward. The Western region is easily the most conservative out of the 5. The westernmost county in Maryland, Garrett county, is one of the most resolutely red counties in America. They have supported the Republican candidate through thick and through thin in every election since 1912. Even Barry Goldwater won this county in 1964, albeit very narrowly. Garrett county sits right next to deep red West Virginia, and the county has a number of mining industries. To the right of Garrett county is Allegany county, which too has a history of coal mining. The last Democrat to win Allegany county was Jimmy Carter in 1976. To the right of Allegany county is Washington county, which is where the Battle of Antietam took place in 1862, as well as the Battle of Harper's Ferry that same year. Perhaps the echoes of the Civil War are still heard in this county, maybe in tandem with the fact that the coal miners there undoubtedly vote Republican, but in any case, Washington county is deep red. Washington county last voted Democratic in 1964.
The Capital region comprises of 3 counties- Frederick, Montgomery, and Prince George's, going north to south. Frederick's county is directly east of Washington county. Like its neighbors to the west, Frederick county has always been reliably Republican, although Hillary Clinton came quite close to winning this county in 2016, and it's very possible that Joe Biden could pick it up for the first time since 1964. Although part of the capital region, Frederick county's voters clearly align much more with those in the western region. The remaining two counties, Montgomery county and Prince George's county, surround the Washington D.C. metro area and comprise of the heavily Democratic D.C. suburbs of Maryland. These two counties are the most populated in the entire state, and it's been many decades since a Republican has won either of them in a presidential election. The ever expanding D.C. suburbs could mean that Frederick county could turn blue in the future, but nothing is guaranteed.
South of the Capital region is the Southern region, which also comprises of 3 counties: Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary's. Charles county is directly south of Prince George's county and is in relatively close proximity to Washington D.C. Although they only started voting Democratic since the turn of the 21st century, the margins of victory for each Democrat has steadily increased. Al Gore barely edged out George Bush in Charles county in 2000, fast-forward 16 years and Hillary Clinton blew out Donald Trump by over 30 points. East of Charles county is Calvert county, and this is where the Democratic influence from Washington D.C. ends. Calvert county is one of the wealthiest counties in America and quite a few of their residents are descendants of the wealthy plantation owners and slaveholders during the pre-Civil War days. John F Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and even Hubert Humphrey won Calvert county, and Carter was able to win it with ease as well in 1976, but since then they have become a solidly Republican county. The last county in this region is St. Mary's county, which is where the first colony is Maryland was founded and is considered to be the "birthplace of religious freedom in America." The county is one of the oldest in the entire country and has many historical sites. They also have a small Amish community that lives there. Although St. Mary's does attract some tourists, the vast majority of their population are white and the D.C. metropolitan area is too far away to have any real influence on its populace. They too are a strongly Republican county and have not voted Democratic since 1976.
The Central region is home to Baltimore, which is the only independent city (meaning it's not part of any county) in the state. There are 41 independent cities in America- 38 are in neighboring Virginia, plus Baltimore, St. Louis, MO, and Carson City, NV. As one would expect, Baltimore is a solidly Democratic bastion, and have been a blue county in every election since 1956. The City of Baltimore is mostly surrounded by Baltimore county, which too is a solidly Democratic area. Baltimore county has followed the formula of many counties that are in the vicinity of major urban areas- as the city expands out and the suburbs around the city grow, those suburbs gradually become more and more Democratic. That has certainly happened in Baltimore county. It was one of the many counties that flipped to from George H.W. Bush to Bill Clinton in 1992 and have never switched back since. South of the City of Baltimore is Anne Arundel county, which is commonly referred to as AA county for short. AA county is home to the state capital of Annapolis. Annapolis's population is minuscule compared to Baltimore and Washington D.C., and thus cannot carry AA county, let alone its surrounding counties, for Democrats like Baltimore does or like how Washington D.C. does to its neighboring Maryland counties. Thus, AA county had always broken in favor of the Republican on election night. That is, until 2016 when Hillary Clinton narrowly won AA county over Donald Trump, becoming the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide. If Biden wins AA county, it will likely signify a change in their political leanings, but if Trump flips it back, it means that AA county is now a bellwether. Northwest of AA county and west of Baltimore county is Howard county, which is the final reliably blue county in Maryland. Just east of deep blue Montgomery county, the D.C. suburbs stretch into Howard county and they last voted Republican in 1988. Directly north of Howard county but light years away in political leanings is Carroll county, where Confederacy support has been prevalent from the Civil War to even up until now. Carroll county was, up until recently, a major stronghold for the Ku Klux Klan. The KKK still makes the news there from time to time. Only in 2018 did the public schools in Carroll county vote to ban all KKK, Confederacy, and Nazi imagery and paraphernalia. LBJ barely edged out Barry Goldwater here in 1964, and Carroll county has been solidly Republican since then. The last county in this region is Harford county, which sits directly east of Baltimore county. Confederacy sympathy has also ran high here, although not to the degree of Carroll county. Despite being close to Baltimore, Harford county is a predominantly rural county and has also voted Republican in every election since 1964.
The last region, the Eastern Shore region, is the largest by land area and is home to many historical sites. Most of the counties in this region are reliably Republican. The uppermost county, Cecil county, has a rich history, serving as a strategic location during the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, and the Civil War. Even now, Cecil county is a key county whose highways connect several major cities in the region. Ideologically, Cecil county has always been very conservative became a Second Amendment sanctuary county in 2013. No Democrat since Carter in 1976 has won this county, and no Democrat will win it for the foreseeable future. South of Cecil county is Kent county, which is the most sparsely populated county in Maryland. Interestingly, Kent county, Maryland shares a border with Kent county, Delaware. To the best of my knowledge, this is the only instance of two counties with the same name sharing a border. Like its twin to the east, Kent county, Maryland is also a swing county, although they have usually voted Republican. Still, Barack Obama edged out John McCain by a mere 48 votes here in 2008, while Mitt Romney edged out Obama by only 28 votes in 2012. While Trump's cushion over Hillary Clinton was greater (301 votes), that could be attributed to a high percentage of third party votes. South of Kent county is Queen Anne's county, where much of Maryland's fishing industry has been conducted over the years. Pro-Confederacy sentiment had always been high throughout Queen Anne's county, and they have not voted Democratic since 1964. The same pretty much applies to Talbot county to the southwest, although Democrats have narrowed the margins significantly in recent years and Republicans only have a slim advantage in registered voters there. While Biden is not likely to carry Talbot county this time around, the winds of change could grow stronger in the future. The same, however, doesn't apply to rural Caroline county directly to the east of Talbot county. Registered Republicans far outnumber registered Democrats in this county, and they last voted Democratic in 1964. Directly south of Talbot and Caroline county lies Dorchester county, which is the least densely populated county in Maryland but has perhaps the most interesting modern political history out of all of Maryland's counties. This is because Dorchester county was the only county in Maryland to vote for Kennedy in 1960 and flip to Goldwater in 1964. Since then, Dorchester county has voted almost exclusively Republican. Although Clinton won it narrowly in 1996, this can be attributed to Ross Perot. While Dorchester county swung hard to Donald Trump in 2016, Obama kept this county very close. Again, while Trump is very likely to win it, Biden does have a shot here. Similar circumstances also apply to Wicomico county, located just south of Dorchester county. Apart from 1964, they have been staunchly Republican, but Democrats have narrowed the margins in recent years. Although Trump widened the Republican margin of victory, a second win here is not a 100% guarantee like in some other counties. Somerset county is the southernmost county of Maryland and is easily the swingiest of Maryland's counties. They were one of just 11 counties in America to flip from McCain to Obama in 2012, although they strongly supported Trump in 2016. Biden could win it back in November, and if he does, it would likely signify a national Biden victory. The final county is that of Worcester county, which is another solidly Republican county. The percentage of white people and black people in Worcester county is much higher and lower, respectively, than that of Somerset county to the west, which explains this. Worcester county last voted Democratic in 1964, and the Republican margins have only been growing.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Maryland's political leanings?
Indeed. Hillary Clinton was the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to win Anne Arundel (AA) county, and she also came very close to winning historically red Frederick county. The Baltimore metro area and suburbs, as well as the suburbs surrounding Washington D.C. also have shifted even further to the left.
When was the last time a Republican carried (this state) and how did he do it?
George H.W. Bush narrowly defeated Michael Dukakis in Maryland in 1988. Now, it is almost impossible to imagine a world where Maryland votes for a Republican at the national level. So how did Bush do it? First of all, Dukakis only won 2 counties: Prince George's and Montgomery, in addition to the City of Baltimore. Not only this, but Dukakis's victory in Montgomery county was extremely slim, narrowly edging out Bush by a little more than 10,000 votes. Since 1988, the raw number of Republican votes has dropped by about a third, whereas the number of Democratic votes has more than doubled. In Prince George's county, the numbers are even worse for Republicans- the total number of Republican votes has dropped by nearly two thirds, and the Democratic votes have nearly tripled. Like many states that have shifted from red to blue in recent years, the massive expansion of the suburbs that surround major cities have caused the number of Democratic voters to skyrocket. Since 1988, the growth of the D.C. suburbs have pushed Charles and Howard counties permanently into the Democratic camp, and it seems that AA and Frederick counties may potentially follow suit. Baltimore county has also become staunchly Democratic. These changes make it all but impossible for Republicans to ever win in Maryland.
When was the last time a Democrat carried (this state) and how did he/she do it?
Hillary Clinton's enormous margins in Prince George's, Montgomery, and Howard counties as well as a landslide win in the City of Baltimore. Her solid wins in Charles and Baltimore counties shouldn't be counted out either, and her narrow but historic win in AA county and her narrow loss in Frederick county are signs that more counties in Maryland will flip blue. Here is the tree map-
If Maryland is blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of the Democratic party cover state and local elections as well?
Mostly. While all of the red counties seen above on the tree map are run almost entirely by Republicans, even they had been been faithful to Senator Paul Sarbanes and Senator Barbara Mikulski. Anyone who has studied corporate law should be aware of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which he helped author. Sarbanes rose to power in 1976, defeating the incumbent Senator, J. Glenn Beall jr, by 17 points- one of the worst losses for an incumbent. In each of his reelections, Sarbanes won by a landslide, winning most of the counties in the state. Even Garrett county voted for him in 1976 and 1982, and he was able to win Allegeny county from 1982 through 2000. Most of the other red counties seen on the tree map voted for him at least once as well. It should be noted that Sarbanes's 1988 opponent was Alan Keyes, a name that should ring a bell for anyone who has studied the career of Barack Obama; Keyes was Obama's opponent when he ran for Senate in 2004. Keyes was no more successful in Maryland than he was in Illinois. Sarbanes chose to retire in 2006, and Representative Ben Cardin won the open seat. Cardin's victory, however, was confined to only to Baltimore and its suburbs, and the D.C. suburbs. In 2012, with president Obama on the ballot, Cardin was more successful. He won reelection by nearly 30 points, compared to his 10 point victory in 2006. Cardin also picked up Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset, AA, and Kent counties, which was and is quite impressive. In 2018, Cardin won by nearly 35 points and picked up Talbot and, more importantly, Frederick county. Cardin's win in the latter county could foreshadow a flip in November for Biden.
Mikulski's success was even greater than Sarbanes'. After moderate Republican senator Charles Mathias jr retired in 1986, the Baltimore councilwoman and social activist seized her moment and became Maryland's first, and to this day, only female senator ever elected. By the time she retired in 2016, Mikulski had become the longest serving woman in the history of the federal government, and was a force to be reckoned with. She won all 4 of her reelection bids in huge landslides, even winning every county except for Garrett county in 1992 and 1998. Her retirement in 2016 produced a near political vacuum of Democrats grappling to inevitably take her place after the election. Congressman Chris Van Hollen of Maryland's 8th district eventually came out on top, and easily defeated his Republican opponent. His victory margin in the 2016 election was almost identical to Hillary Clinton's, he won all the same counties she did, except for AA county.
Maryland has 8 congressional seats, 7 of which are occupied by Democrats. Here is the map.
Maryland is home to some very noteworthy Congresspeople. The 5th District has been represented by Steny Hoyer for nearly 40 years. Hoyer is currently the House Majority Leader. The 7th District was represented by Elijah Cummings from 1996 up until his death in 2019. It is also worth noting that the 3rd District is represented by John Sarbanes, who is the son of the former Senator Paul Sarbanes. Since his father was very popular, John Sarbanes could could be a potential contender for the Senate if a vacancy is created. District 1, which covers the entirety of Maryland's eastern shore, is the only district represented by a Republican.
Republicans have complained, perhaps rightfully so, that Maryland's districts are gerrymandered to favor Democrats. The reason their argument is valid is because the heavily Republican western pan-handle is represented by a Democrat because the district stretches to cover much of heavily populated and deep blue Montgomery county. The 8th district also would likely be in Republican hands if it weren't for the fact that the southern border extends to cover a big chunk of the D.C. suburbs. In fact, every district seems to be malformed to tap into the heavily blue D.C. suburbs and siphon away as many votes as possible.
The only influence Republicans have in Maryland is in the Governor's office. Despite being heavily Democratic in federal elections, Maryland's current governor, Larry Hogan, is a Republican. However, to keep faith with his constituents, Hogan is extremely moderate and is often times liberal when it comes to pivotal issues. He supports gay marriage, abortion rights, and gun control, as well as the impeachment inquiry into president Trump. How was he elected in such a blue state, one may ask? Well, in 2014, Governor Martin O'Malley was term limited and thus could not run again. The Democratic nominee, Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown, was favored to win the election. However, Hogan narrowly won in what was considered an upset win. Perhaps the biggest key to his victory was that Montgomery and Prince George's counties, two counties where well over 300,000 people voted for Barack Obama apiece in 2008 and 2012, both contributed less than 200,000 votes to Brown. The much smaller margins in these counties, among other things, was enough to put Hogan over the top. Hogan won an even more impressive victory in 2018, as 2018 was a very good midterm for Democrats (2014 wasn't). Hogan won by over 10 points, and his opponent, Ben Jealous, barely performed any better than Brown in the D.C. suburbs. Hogan recently has said that several Trump cabinet members pressed him to challenge the president in 2020, but he refused. Although very popular in Maryland, Hogan's much more moderate views would never get any traction with the Republican party today, and Maryland would still be a blue state even if their governor is the Republican nominee.
6. So who will win (this state)?
All of this being said, Joe Biden stands very likely to win Maryland by an even greater margin than Hillary Clinton did. There are several counties to keep an eye on, as seen on these maps below-
Maryland is one of the the safest states for Democrats. Like Delaware and New Jersey, they have voted for the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 1992. They were also one of the few states to back Jimmy Carter in 1980. In recent decades, Maryland has only voted Republican in the landslide elections of 1952, 1956, 1972, 1984, and 1988. They also backed Thomas Dewey over Harry Truman in 1948. However, large influxes of immigrants as well as African Americans moving into the D.C. suburbs have pushed the state decisively into the Democratic column.
Maryland has 5 regions, as shown here on this map-
Let's start at the pan-handle and go rightward. The Western region is easily the most conservative out of the 5. The westernmost county in Maryland, Garrett county, is one of the most resolutely red counties in America. They have supported the Republican candidate through thick and through thin in every election since 1912. Even Barry Goldwater won this county in 1964, albeit very narrowly. Garrett county sits right next to deep red West Virginia, and the county has a number of mining industries. To the right of Garrett county is Allegany county, which too has a history of coal mining. The last Democrat to win Allegany county was Jimmy Carter in 1976. To the right of Allegany county is Washington county, which is where the Battle of Antietam took place in 1862, as well as the Battle of Harper's Ferry that same year. Perhaps the echoes of the Civil War are still heard in this county, maybe in tandem with the fact that the coal miners there undoubtedly vote Republican, but in any case, Washington county is deep red. Washington county last voted Democratic in 1964.
The Capital region comprises of 3 counties- Frederick, Montgomery, and Prince George's, going north to south. Frederick's county is directly east of Washington county. Like its neighbors to the west, Frederick county has always been reliably Republican, although Hillary Clinton came quite close to winning this county in 2016, and it's very possible that Joe Biden could pick it up for the first time since 1964. Although part of the capital region, Frederick county's voters clearly align much more with those in the western region. The remaining two counties, Montgomery county and Prince George's county, surround the Washington D.C. metro area and comprise of the heavily Democratic D.C. suburbs of Maryland. These two counties are the most populated in the entire state, and it's been many decades since a Republican has won either of them in a presidential election. The ever expanding D.C. suburbs could mean that Frederick county could turn blue in the future, but nothing is guaranteed.
South of the Capital region is the Southern region, which also comprises of 3 counties: Charles, Calvert, and St. Mary's. Charles county is directly south of Prince George's county and is in relatively close proximity to Washington D.C. Although they only started voting Democratic since the turn of the 21st century, the margins of victory for each Democrat has steadily increased. Al Gore barely edged out George Bush in Charles county in 2000, fast-forward 16 years and Hillary Clinton blew out Donald Trump by over 30 points. East of Charles county is Calvert county, and this is where the Democratic influence from Washington D.C. ends. Calvert county is one of the wealthiest counties in America and quite a few of their residents are descendants of the wealthy plantation owners and slaveholders during the pre-Civil War days. John F Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson, and even Hubert Humphrey won Calvert county, and Carter was able to win it with ease as well in 1976, but since then they have become a solidly Republican county. The last county in this region is St. Mary's county, which is where the first colony is Maryland was founded and is considered to be the "birthplace of religious freedom in America." The county is one of the oldest in the entire country and has many historical sites. They also have a small Amish community that lives there. Although St. Mary's does attract some tourists, the vast majority of their population are white and the D.C. metropolitan area is too far away to have any real influence on its populace. They too are a strongly Republican county and have not voted Democratic since 1976.
The Central region is home to Baltimore, which is the only independent city (meaning it's not part of any county) in the state. There are 41 independent cities in America- 38 are in neighboring Virginia, plus Baltimore, St. Louis, MO, and Carson City, NV. As one would expect, Baltimore is a solidly Democratic bastion, and have been a blue county in every election since 1956. The City of Baltimore is mostly surrounded by Baltimore county, which too is a solidly Democratic area. Baltimore county has followed the formula of many counties that are in the vicinity of major urban areas- as the city expands out and the suburbs around the city grow, those suburbs gradually become more and more Democratic. That has certainly happened in Baltimore county. It was one of the many counties that flipped to from George H.W. Bush to Bill Clinton in 1992 and have never switched back since. South of the City of Baltimore is Anne Arundel county, which is commonly referred to as AA county for short. AA county is home to the state capital of Annapolis. Annapolis's population is minuscule compared to Baltimore and Washington D.C., and thus cannot carry AA county, let alone its surrounding counties, for Democrats like Baltimore does or like how Washington D.C. does to its neighboring Maryland counties. Thus, AA county had always broken in favor of the Republican on election night. That is, until 2016 when Hillary Clinton narrowly won AA county over Donald Trump, becoming the first Democrat to do so since LBJ in his 1964 landslide. If Biden wins AA county, it will likely signify a change in their political leanings, but if Trump flips it back, it means that AA county is now a bellwether. Northwest of AA county and west of Baltimore county is Howard county, which is the final reliably blue county in Maryland. Just east of deep blue Montgomery county, the D.C. suburbs stretch into Howard county and they last voted Republican in 1988. Directly north of Howard county but light years away in political leanings is Carroll county, where Confederacy support has been prevalent from the Civil War to even up until now. Carroll county was, up until recently, a major stronghold for the Ku Klux Klan. The KKK still makes the news there from time to time. Only in 2018 did the public schools in Carroll county vote to ban all KKK, Confederacy, and Nazi imagery and paraphernalia. LBJ barely edged out Barry Goldwater here in 1964, and Carroll county has been solidly Republican since then. The last county in this region is Harford county, which sits directly east of Baltimore county. Confederacy sympathy has also ran high here, although not to the degree of Carroll county. Despite being close to Baltimore, Harford county is a predominantly rural county and has also voted Republican in every election since 1964.
The last region, the Eastern Shore region, is the largest by land area and is home to many historical sites. Most of the counties in this region are reliably Republican. The uppermost county, Cecil county, has a rich history, serving as a strategic location during the Revolutionary War, the War of 1812, and the Civil War. Even now, Cecil county is a key county whose highways connect several major cities in the region. Ideologically, Cecil county has always been very conservative became a Second Amendment sanctuary county in 2013. No Democrat since Carter in 1976 has won this county, and no Democrat will win it for the foreseeable future. South of Cecil county is Kent county, which is the most sparsely populated county in Maryland. Interestingly, Kent county, Maryland shares a border with Kent county, Delaware. To the best of my knowledge, this is the only instance of two counties with the same name sharing a border. Like its twin to the east, Kent county, Maryland is also a swing county, although they have usually voted Republican. Still, Barack Obama edged out John McCain by a mere 48 votes here in 2008, while Mitt Romney edged out Obama by only 28 votes in 2012. While Trump's cushion over Hillary Clinton was greater (301 votes), that could be attributed to a high percentage of third party votes. South of Kent county is Queen Anne's county, where much of Maryland's fishing industry has been conducted over the years. Pro-Confederacy sentiment had always been high throughout Queen Anne's county, and they have not voted Democratic since 1964. The same pretty much applies to Talbot county to the southwest, although Democrats have narrowed the margins significantly in recent years and Republicans only have a slim advantage in registered voters there. While Biden is not likely to carry Talbot county this time around, the winds of change could grow stronger in the future. The same, however, doesn't apply to rural Caroline county directly to the east of Talbot county. Registered Republicans far outnumber registered Democrats in this county, and they last voted Democratic in 1964. Directly south of Talbot and Caroline county lies Dorchester county, which is the least densely populated county in Maryland but has perhaps the most interesting modern political history out of all of Maryland's counties. This is because Dorchester county was the only county in Maryland to vote for Kennedy in 1960 and flip to Goldwater in 1964. Since then, Dorchester county has voted almost exclusively Republican. Although Clinton won it narrowly in 1996, this can be attributed to Ross Perot. While Dorchester county swung hard to Donald Trump in 2016, Obama kept this county very close. Again, while Trump is very likely to win it, Biden does have a shot here. Similar circumstances also apply to Wicomico county, located just south of Dorchester county. Apart from 1964, they have been staunchly Republican, but Democrats have narrowed the margins in recent years. Although Trump widened the Republican margin of victory, a second win here is not a 100% guarantee like in some other counties. Somerset county is the southernmost county of Maryland and is easily the swingiest of Maryland's counties. They were one of just 11 counties in America to flip from McCain to Obama in 2012, although they strongly supported Trump in 2016. Biden could win it back in November, and if he does, it would likely signify a national Biden victory. The final county is that of Worcester county, which is another solidly Republican county. The percentage of white people and black people in Worcester county is much higher and lower, respectively, than that of Somerset county to the west, which explains this. Worcester county last voted Democratic in 1964, and the Republican margins have only been growing.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Maryland's political leanings?
Indeed. Hillary Clinton was the first Democrat since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 to win Anne Arundel (AA) county, and she also came very close to winning historically red Frederick county. The Baltimore metro area and suburbs, as well as the suburbs surrounding Washington D.C. also have shifted even further to the left.
When was the last time a Republican carried (this state) and how did he do it?
George H.W. Bush narrowly defeated Michael Dukakis in Maryland in 1988. Now, it is almost impossible to imagine a world where Maryland votes for a Republican at the national level. So how did Bush do it? First of all, Dukakis only won 2 counties: Prince George's and Montgomery, in addition to the City of Baltimore. Not only this, but Dukakis's victory in Montgomery county was extremely slim, narrowly edging out Bush by a little more than 10,000 votes. Since 1988, the raw number of Republican votes has dropped by about a third, whereas the number of Democratic votes has more than doubled. In Prince George's county, the numbers are even worse for Republicans- the total number of Republican votes has dropped by nearly two thirds, and the Democratic votes have nearly tripled. Like many states that have shifted from red to blue in recent years, the massive expansion of the suburbs that surround major cities have caused the number of Democratic voters to skyrocket. Since 1988, the growth of the D.C. suburbs have pushed Charles and Howard counties permanently into the Democratic camp, and it seems that AA and Frederick counties may potentially follow suit. Baltimore county has also become staunchly Democratic. These changes make it all but impossible for Republicans to ever win in Maryland.
When was the last time a Democrat carried (this state) and how did he/she do it?
Hillary Clinton's enormous margins in Prince George's, Montgomery, and Howard counties as well as a landslide win in the City of Baltimore. Her solid wins in Charles and Baltimore counties shouldn't be counted out either, and her narrow but historic win in AA county and her narrow loss in Frederick county are signs that more counties in Maryland will flip blue. Here is the tree map-
If Maryland is blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of the Democratic party cover state and local elections as well?
Mostly. While all of the red counties seen above on the tree map are run almost entirely by Republicans, even they had been been faithful to Senator Paul Sarbanes and Senator Barbara Mikulski. Anyone who has studied corporate law should be aware of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, which he helped author. Sarbanes rose to power in 1976, defeating the incumbent Senator, J. Glenn Beall jr, by 17 points- one of the worst losses for an incumbent. In each of his reelections, Sarbanes won by a landslide, winning most of the counties in the state. Even Garrett county voted for him in 1976 and 1982, and he was able to win Allegeny county from 1982 through 2000. Most of the other red counties seen on the tree map voted for him at least once as well. It should be noted that Sarbanes's 1988 opponent was Alan Keyes, a name that should ring a bell for anyone who has studied the career of Barack Obama; Keyes was Obama's opponent when he ran for Senate in 2004. Keyes was no more successful in Maryland than he was in Illinois. Sarbanes chose to retire in 2006, and Representative Ben Cardin won the open seat. Cardin's victory, however, was confined to only to Baltimore and its suburbs, and the D.C. suburbs. In 2012, with president Obama on the ballot, Cardin was more successful. He won reelection by nearly 30 points, compared to his 10 point victory in 2006. Cardin also picked up Dorchester, Wicomico, Somerset, AA, and Kent counties, which was and is quite impressive. In 2018, Cardin won by nearly 35 points and picked up Talbot and, more importantly, Frederick county. Cardin's win in the latter county could foreshadow a flip in November for Biden.
Mikulski's success was even greater than Sarbanes'. After moderate Republican senator Charles Mathias jr retired in 1986, the Baltimore councilwoman and social activist seized her moment and became Maryland's first, and to this day, only female senator ever elected. By the time she retired in 2016, Mikulski had become the longest serving woman in the history of the federal government, and was a force to be reckoned with. She won all 4 of her reelection bids in huge landslides, even winning every county except for Garrett county in 1992 and 1998. Her retirement in 2016 produced a near political vacuum of Democrats grappling to inevitably take her place after the election. Congressman Chris Van Hollen of Maryland's 8th district eventually came out on top, and easily defeated his Republican opponent. His victory margin in the 2016 election was almost identical to Hillary Clinton's, he won all the same counties she did, except for AA county.
Maryland has 8 congressional seats, 7 of which are occupied by Democrats. Here is the map.
Maryland is home to some very noteworthy Congresspeople. The 5th District has been represented by Steny Hoyer for nearly 40 years. Hoyer is currently the House Majority Leader. The 7th District was represented by Elijah Cummings from 1996 up until his death in 2019. It is also worth noting that the 3rd District is represented by John Sarbanes, who is the son of the former Senator Paul Sarbanes. Since his father was very popular, John Sarbanes could could be a potential contender for the Senate if a vacancy is created. District 1, which covers the entirety of Maryland's eastern shore, is the only district represented by a Republican.
Republicans have complained, perhaps rightfully so, that Maryland's districts are gerrymandered to favor Democrats. The reason their argument is valid is because the heavily Republican western pan-handle is represented by a Democrat because the district stretches to cover much of heavily populated and deep blue Montgomery county. The 8th district also would likely be in Republican hands if it weren't for the fact that the southern border extends to cover a big chunk of the D.C. suburbs. In fact, every district seems to be malformed to tap into the heavily blue D.C. suburbs and siphon away as many votes as possible.
The only influence Republicans have in Maryland is in the Governor's office. Despite being heavily Democratic in federal elections, Maryland's current governor, Larry Hogan, is a Republican. However, to keep faith with his constituents, Hogan is extremely moderate and is often times liberal when it comes to pivotal issues. He supports gay marriage, abortion rights, and gun control, as well as the impeachment inquiry into president Trump. How was he elected in such a blue state, one may ask? Well, in 2014, Governor Martin O'Malley was term limited and thus could not run again. The Democratic nominee, Lieutenant Governor Anthony Brown, was favored to win the election. However, Hogan narrowly won in what was considered an upset win. Perhaps the biggest key to his victory was that Montgomery and Prince George's counties, two counties where well over 300,000 people voted for Barack Obama apiece in 2008 and 2012, both contributed less than 200,000 votes to Brown. The much smaller margins in these counties, among other things, was enough to put Hogan over the top. Hogan won an even more impressive victory in 2018, as 2018 was a very good midterm for Democrats (2014 wasn't). Hogan won by over 10 points, and his opponent, Ben Jealous, barely performed any better than Brown in the D.C. suburbs. Hogan recently has said that several Trump cabinet members pressed him to challenge the president in 2020, but he refused. Although very popular in Maryland, Hogan's much more moderate views would never get any traction with the Republican party today, and Maryland would still be a blue state even if their governor is the Republican nominee.
6. So who will win (this state)?
All of this being said, Joe Biden stands very likely to win Maryland by an even greater margin than Hillary Clinton did. There are several counties to keep an eye on, as seen on these maps below-
Comments
Post a Comment