The State of the Election: Arkansas- A state that taught Hillary Clinton an important lesson about carpetbagging.
Imagining Arkansas as a blue state today is all but impossible. However, only 25 years ago, it was difficult to imagine Arkansas as a red state. Their favorite son, Bill Clinton, was president, and his home state was a state that he was guaranteed to win no matter what in 1996. Skip to 2016, and Hillary Clinton lost Arkansas by nearly 30 points to Trump. So why did Arkansans turn on what was once their favorite family?
Probably because the Clinton's, Hillary in particular, turned on them when they moved to New York in 2000. Looking back, any sane Democrat would agree that this was an egregious mistake on Mrs. Clinton's behalf. Why move to New York and abandon the state that chose her husband to occupy the Governor's office and thus by far contributed the most to her rise to prominence? To be clear, Mrs. Clinton should be commended for her ambition to remain in politics after her husband's presidency ended, as no First Lady had ever done this. However, there was no reason for her to abandon Arkansas. Solidly Democratic New York state was not ever going to elect a Republican Senator to replace retiring Democratic Senator Patrick Moynihan. There was zero imperative for her to go there. She should have just waited around in Arkansas to run for Senate there. She was still young in 2000. The opportunity would have presented itself sooner or later.
The people in Arkansas may not have liked Hillary Clinton abandoning them, but still, she led John McCain in the Arkansas polls during the 2008 election. Had she, rather than Barack Obama, been the Democratic nominee, she would have won Arkansas. Unfortunately for the people of Arkansas who once supported her so strongly, Hillary Clinton perhaps permanently cemented her status as a carpetbagging, east-coast elitist-wannabe when she became president Obama's Secretary of State. Gone was the Hillary Clinton who was an inspiration to so many Arkansans and so many southerners in general. The new Hillary Clinton was perceived as corrupt, greedy, and traitorous. Couple this with the complete collapse of what was left of the southern Democrats- something that Obama likely anticipated but knew he was powerless to prevent- and Arkansas ended up tossing out both their Democratic Senator and ousted all of their Democratic Representatives. By 2016, Arkansas had become a deep red state. However, Obama and the Democratic establishment didn't care about losing all of their ancestral power in the south. They instead focused on shoring up support in states like Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada- states that all were red-leaning battlegrounds but were rapidly becoming more blue.
Conclusion: Hillary Clinton should have stayed in Arkansas. Had she done this, there would have been no Benghazi (or at least she wouldn't have been involved with it), no private email server, and perhaps Arkansas would still be a battleground state in presidential elections.
1. How has Arkansas voted in the past, and how do the different regions of Arkansas vote?
Arkansas has 5 geographic regions, as seen here on this map-
Like Wyoming, I also will show the county map for comparison-
At this point, only a few counties in the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain vote Democratic, plus the Little Rock metropolitan area. There are 75 counties in Arkansas- far too many to individually talk about here. But let's go region by region.
In the heart of the Bible Belt, the Ozark Plateaus region to the northwest has always been the most conservative region in Arkansas. In 1992, native Arkansan Bill Clinton only lost 5 counties, 4 of which are located in this region. The first of those counties was Benton county, which is located in the northwest corner of the state. This was also one of the few counties that Barry Goldwater managed to win in 1964. Clinton also failed to carry Crawford county, which is two counties south of Benton. Although they did vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976, Clinton's charm failed to flip it in 1992. Pope county, where Union and Confederacy sentiments have clashed many times throughout its history, also narrowly voted for George H.W. Bush, although it would flip to Clinton in 1996. Searcy county, to the north of Pope county, also failed to vote for Clinton and was a county that voted for Goldwater in 1964, although Carter won it in 1976. Searcy county's soils were non-arable during the time of slavery, which made farming almost impossible. With minimal slaves, pro-Union sympathy was strong here and thus they allied themselves with the anti-slavery Republicans, and their loyalty to the Republican party remains rock solid to this day. Clinton also never carried Sebastian county in the Arkansas River Valley region; no Democrat has done so since Truman. Clinton dropped several more counties in the Ozarks in 1996. Boone county, where the KKK is still active and white supremacy runs strong, flipped back into the Republican column. The same happened to Baxter county, Carroll county, Newton county (whose history is very similar to neighboring Searcy county), and Polk county in the Ouachita Mountains.
The Arkansas River Valley region too is solidly Republican. Although Bill Clinton swept most of the counties in this region in 1992 and 1996, they flipped to George Bush in 2000 and have become solidly Republican since then.
The same mostly applies to the Ouachita Mountains region. The key exception is Pulaski county, which is home to the state capital of Little Rock. Pulaski county has not voted Republican since 1988. The region also partially covers Clark county. Known for its lumber industry, Clark county voted Democratic as recently as 2004, although Republicans have not been able to expand on their margins too much there.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were no more successful in the West Gulf Coastal Plain region either. Although Al Gore managed to win the majority of counties in this region in 2000, most of the counties flipped to Bush in 2004. Besides Clark county, John Kerry won 4 other Democratic holdouts here- Bradley county, Hempstead county (home to Old Washington Historic State Park), Little River county, and Lincoln county. Those 4 counties took a sharp turn to the right in 2008, and have not looked back since.
What little remains of the Democratic party in Arkansas lies in the Mississippi River Alluvial Plains. Most of the counties along the eastern border have large populations of African Americans. Crittenden county, it should be noted, sits right next to heavily Democratic Memphis, Tennessee. The other reliably Democratic counties are those of Saint Francis, Jefferson, Lee, Desha, Phillips, and Chicot. All of these counties have a large population of African Americans, and all of them sit next to the Mississippi river, except for Jefferson county, which is home to Pine Bluff and is close to Little Rock as well. The one bellwether county is Woodruff county. Although they had voted Democratic in every election in the 20th century aside from their support of George Wallace in 1968 and Nixon in 1972, Trump managed to flip this county into his column in 2016. There are a few other counties here that have voted Democratic as recently as 2004, but do so no longer.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Arkansas's political leanings?
You wouldn't think that Hillary Clinton was once Arkansas's first lady based on her performance in 2016. Voters in Arkansas made it clear that they had completely turned on Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, in June, a poll was released that showed Biden running almost even with Trump here. If more polls show a tight race between Trump and Biden in Arkansas, it would mean that Trump's reelection odds are almost zero. Being the first white male Democratic nominee since 2004, Biden could be in a position to recapture some counties that turned against the Democratic party in 2008 when Barack Obama was on the ticket.
When was the last time a Republican carried Arkansas and how did he do it?
Trump ran up huge majorities in every part of Arkansas except in Little Rock and the heavily African American eastern border of the state. As I have already said, the Democratic regional power that once ran so strong in Arkansas is now all but nonexistent. In addition, Little Rock is not nearly large enough to counter the heavily Republican rural areas that dominate the state.
When was the last time a Democrat carried Arkansas and how did he/she do it?
Native Arkansan and favorite son Bill Clinton easily captured Arkansas's electoral votes in 1992 and 1996. Back then, a candidate's regional power was far stronger than it is now, in most cases. Many Republican voters of now, when asked why they voted for Clinton, say they did so because of cultural reasons. They felt Clinton was one of them. He spoke their language, so to speak.
1992, only 4 years had passed since Americans resoundingly voted for George H.W. Bush for president. However, in those four years, it seemed like a generation had passed in the mindset of Americans. With the Cold War over, Americans no longer saw George H.W. Bush as a bold statesman who would stand up to the Soviet Union. Instead, Bush's years in Washington D.C. caught up with him, and most Americans viewed him as old, beleaguered, and simply out of touch with the lives of ordinary Americans. Couple this with the Ross Perot's successful third party campaign, and the young, charismatic, and silver-tongued Clinton easily won. Would Clinton have won without Perot running? Nobody knows, but Clinton certainly would have carried his home state of Arkansas regardless.
In 1996, the old, boring, and monotone Bob Dole was no match for Clinton in Arkansas either. However, in 2000, Arkansans identified much more with Texas Governor George W. Bush, whose common-man personality resonated more with their voters then Vice President Al Gore's stiffness and lack of charisma. They have only grown more Republican since then, and although the south still elects Democratic governors (John Bel-Edwards of Louisiana, Andy Beshear in Kentucky, etc), even the weakest Republican would likely beat them int a presidential contest in their home state and would sweep the rest of the south as well, except for Florida, perhaps.
If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Up until quite recently, Arkansas voted strongly Democratic in state elections. From the time of Reconstruction up until 1996, Arkansas always had 2 Democratic Senators. And in 2002, incumbent Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson lost reelection to Mark Pryor, who was then the Attorney General for Arkansas. Republicans didn't even bother to nominate anyone to challenge Pryor in 2008, and he won every single county despite Barack Obama's simultaneous failure to connect with voters there. However, while President Obama solidified the Democratic party in parts of the southwest and, at least temporarily, the Great Lakes region as well, his presidency brought about the collapse of the southern Democrats. There are many reasons as to why this happened. The Clintons' defection to New York was a blow to the Democratic party's prospects in that region early on. Also, keep in mind that the last truly northern Democrat to be elected president was Kennedy, and he too faced difficulties in the south, losing Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky to Nixon and (partially) losing Alabama and entirely losing Mississippi to independent Harry Byrd.
And yes, we need to acknowledge the elephant in the room, which is Obama's skin color. There were some racists who continued to vote Democratic in state and local elections in Arkansas and in other states as well, but the Obama presidency was finally the straw that broke the camel's back for them. As such, it came as no surprise when Senator Pryor lost badly in 2014 to Representative Tom Cotton. Arkansas's other Democratic Senator, Blanche Lincoln, faced defeat even faster. She lost her 2010 reelection bid to Representative John Boozman. It certainly didn't help that Arkansas's Senators supported Obamacare and the Obama stimulus, among other pieces of legislation signed by the president. Like Hillary Clinton, Arkansas's Democratic Senators went from heroes to zeroes. To put it mildly, southern Democrats really didn't like Barack Obama.
Democrats in Arkansas were no more fortunate in the House during Obama's presidency, either. In 2008, Democrats controlled 3 out of the 4 House seats in Arkansas. Only the 3rd District, located in heavily conservative Ozarks, was occupied by a Republican- future Senator John Boozman. Republicans flipped 2 of the 3 seats in the 2010 midterms, and the last seat fell in 2012. Republicans have held on to all 4 seats since then, and in 2016, Democrats didn't even field any candidates for 3 of the 4 districts. Only the 2nd District, which covers Little Rock, is still considered to be somewhat competitive.
Like many other solidly red states, Arkansas still seems to have respect for Democrats at the gubernatorial level, although that too may be fading away. In 2010, incumbent Democratic Governor Mike Beebe swept every single county to win a crushing reelection, despite Republican gains in the Senate and House. Beebe also won almost every county in 2006. However, in 2018, incumbent Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson won reelection in the biggest landslide for any Arkansas Republican, perhaps a sign that even the Governor's office is slipping away from the Democrats. Arkansas's mos famous governor is Bill Clinton, who served from 1978 to 1980 but was defeated by Frank White, only to exact his revenge on White 2 years later in 1982 when he snatched his old job back. Clinton continued to serve as governor until his resignation shortly before became president. Up until 1986, Arkansas governors served 2 year terms, rather than 4; New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states who still elect their governors every 2 years. No Arkansan has been elected president since Clinton, although former Governor Mike Huckabee ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination in 2008 and 2012.
So who will win Arkansas?
Joe Biden is not as hated in Arkansas as Hillary Clinton was, but it's unlikely that anything significant could change. COVID-19 has not impacted Arkansas nearly as bad as other states, and the majority of people still trust Trump to see America through the pandemic. Although one poll did say the race in Arkansas is close, no other polls have been released since then. If new polls also indicate a tight race in Arkansas, I will reconsider my evaluation, but for now, Trump has Arkansas locked up.
Overall map:
Probably because the Clinton's, Hillary in particular, turned on them when they moved to New York in 2000. Looking back, any sane Democrat would agree that this was an egregious mistake on Mrs. Clinton's behalf. Why move to New York and abandon the state that chose her husband to occupy the Governor's office and thus by far contributed the most to her rise to prominence? To be clear, Mrs. Clinton should be commended for her ambition to remain in politics after her husband's presidency ended, as no First Lady had ever done this. However, there was no reason for her to abandon Arkansas. Solidly Democratic New York state was not ever going to elect a Republican Senator to replace retiring Democratic Senator Patrick Moynihan. There was zero imperative for her to go there. She should have just waited around in Arkansas to run for Senate there. She was still young in 2000. The opportunity would have presented itself sooner or later.
The people in Arkansas may not have liked Hillary Clinton abandoning them, but still, she led John McCain in the Arkansas polls during the 2008 election. Had she, rather than Barack Obama, been the Democratic nominee, she would have won Arkansas. Unfortunately for the people of Arkansas who once supported her so strongly, Hillary Clinton perhaps permanently cemented her status as a carpetbagging, east-coast elitist-wannabe when she became president Obama's Secretary of State. Gone was the Hillary Clinton who was an inspiration to so many Arkansans and so many southerners in general. The new Hillary Clinton was perceived as corrupt, greedy, and traitorous. Couple this with the complete collapse of what was left of the southern Democrats- something that Obama likely anticipated but knew he was powerless to prevent- and Arkansas ended up tossing out both their Democratic Senator and ousted all of their Democratic Representatives. By 2016, Arkansas had become a deep red state. However, Obama and the Democratic establishment didn't care about losing all of their ancestral power in the south. They instead focused on shoring up support in states like Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada- states that all were red-leaning battlegrounds but were rapidly becoming more blue.
Conclusion: Hillary Clinton should have stayed in Arkansas. Had she done this, there would have been no Benghazi (or at least she wouldn't have been involved with it), no private email server, and perhaps Arkansas would still be a battleground state in presidential elections.
1. How has Arkansas voted in the past, and how do the different regions of Arkansas vote?
Arkansas has 5 geographic regions, as seen here on this map-
Like Wyoming, I also will show the county map for comparison-
At this point, only a few counties in the Mississippi River Alluvial Plain vote Democratic, plus the Little Rock metropolitan area. There are 75 counties in Arkansas- far too many to individually talk about here. But let's go region by region.
In the heart of the Bible Belt, the Ozark Plateaus region to the northwest has always been the most conservative region in Arkansas. In 1992, native Arkansan Bill Clinton only lost 5 counties, 4 of which are located in this region. The first of those counties was Benton county, which is located in the northwest corner of the state. This was also one of the few counties that Barry Goldwater managed to win in 1964. Clinton also failed to carry Crawford county, which is two counties south of Benton. Although they did vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976, Clinton's charm failed to flip it in 1992. Pope county, where Union and Confederacy sentiments have clashed many times throughout its history, also narrowly voted for George H.W. Bush, although it would flip to Clinton in 1996. Searcy county, to the north of Pope county, also failed to vote for Clinton and was a county that voted for Goldwater in 1964, although Carter won it in 1976. Searcy county's soils were non-arable during the time of slavery, which made farming almost impossible. With minimal slaves, pro-Union sympathy was strong here and thus they allied themselves with the anti-slavery Republicans, and their loyalty to the Republican party remains rock solid to this day. Clinton also never carried Sebastian county in the Arkansas River Valley region; no Democrat has done so since Truman. Clinton dropped several more counties in the Ozarks in 1996. Boone county, where the KKK is still active and white supremacy runs strong, flipped back into the Republican column. The same happened to Baxter county, Carroll county, Newton county (whose history is very similar to neighboring Searcy county), and Polk county in the Ouachita Mountains.
The Arkansas River Valley region too is solidly Republican. Although Bill Clinton swept most of the counties in this region in 1992 and 1996, they flipped to George Bush in 2000 and have become solidly Republican since then.
The same mostly applies to the Ouachita Mountains region. The key exception is Pulaski county, which is home to the state capital of Little Rock. Pulaski county has not voted Republican since 1988. The region also partially covers Clark county. Known for its lumber industry, Clark county voted Democratic as recently as 2004, although Republicans have not been able to expand on their margins too much there.
Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton were no more successful in the West Gulf Coastal Plain region either. Although Al Gore managed to win the majority of counties in this region in 2000, most of the counties flipped to Bush in 2004. Besides Clark county, John Kerry won 4 other Democratic holdouts here- Bradley county, Hempstead county (home to Old Washington Historic State Park), Little River county, and Lincoln county. Those 4 counties took a sharp turn to the right in 2008, and have not looked back since.
What little remains of the Democratic party in Arkansas lies in the Mississippi River Alluvial Plains. Most of the counties along the eastern border have large populations of African Americans. Crittenden county, it should be noted, sits right next to heavily Democratic Memphis, Tennessee. The other reliably Democratic counties are those of Saint Francis, Jefferson, Lee, Desha, Phillips, and Chicot. All of these counties have a large population of African Americans, and all of them sit next to the Mississippi river, except for Jefferson county, which is home to Pine Bluff and is close to Little Rock as well. The one bellwether county is Woodruff county. Although they had voted Democratic in every election in the 20th century aside from their support of George Wallace in 1968 and Nixon in 1972, Trump managed to flip this county into his column in 2016. There are a few other counties here that have voted Democratic as recently as 2004, but do so no longer.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Arkansas's political leanings?
You wouldn't think that Hillary Clinton was once Arkansas's first lady based on her performance in 2016. Voters in Arkansas made it clear that they had completely turned on Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, in June, a poll was released that showed Biden running almost even with Trump here. If more polls show a tight race between Trump and Biden in Arkansas, it would mean that Trump's reelection odds are almost zero. Being the first white male Democratic nominee since 2004, Biden could be in a position to recapture some counties that turned against the Democratic party in 2008 when Barack Obama was on the ticket.
When was the last time a Republican carried Arkansas and how did he do it?
Trump ran up huge majorities in every part of Arkansas except in Little Rock and the heavily African American eastern border of the state. As I have already said, the Democratic regional power that once ran so strong in Arkansas is now all but nonexistent. In addition, Little Rock is not nearly large enough to counter the heavily Republican rural areas that dominate the state.
When was the last time a Democrat carried Arkansas and how did he/she do it?
Native Arkansan and favorite son Bill Clinton easily captured Arkansas's electoral votes in 1992 and 1996. Back then, a candidate's regional power was far stronger than it is now, in most cases. Many Republican voters of now, when asked why they voted for Clinton, say they did so because of cultural reasons. They felt Clinton was one of them. He spoke their language, so to speak.
1992, only 4 years had passed since Americans resoundingly voted for George H.W. Bush for president. However, in those four years, it seemed like a generation had passed in the mindset of Americans. With the Cold War over, Americans no longer saw George H.W. Bush as a bold statesman who would stand up to the Soviet Union. Instead, Bush's years in Washington D.C. caught up with him, and most Americans viewed him as old, beleaguered, and simply out of touch with the lives of ordinary Americans. Couple this with the Ross Perot's successful third party campaign, and the young, charismatic, and silver-tongued Clinton easily won. Would Clinton have won without Perot running? Nobody knows, but Clinton certainly would have carried his home state of Arkansas regardless.
In 1996, the old, boring, and monotone Bob Dole was no match for Clinton in Arkansas either. However, in 2000, Arkansans identified much more with Texas Governor George W. Bush, whose common-man personality resonated more with their voters then Vice President Al Gore's stiffness and lack of charisma. They have only grown more Republican since then, and although the south still elects Democratic governors (John Bel-Edwards of Louisiana, Andy Beshear in Kentucky, etc), even the weakest Republican would likely beat them int a presidential contest in their home state and would sweep the rest of the south as well, except for Florida, perhaps.
If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Up until quite recently, Arkansas voted strongly Democratic in state elections. From the time of Reconstruction up until 1996, Arkansas always had 2 Democratic Senators. And in 2002, incumbent Republican Senator Tim Hutchinson lost reelection to Mark Pryor, who was then the Attorney General for Arkansas. Republicans didn't even bother to nominate anyone to challenge Pryor in 2008, and he won every single county despite Barack Obama's simultaneous failure to connect with voters there. However, while President Obama solidified the Democratic party in parts of the southwest and, at least temporarily, the Great Lakes region as well, his presidency brought about the collapse of the southern Democrats. There are many reasons as to why this happened. The Clintons' defection to New York was a blow to the Democratic party's prospects in that region early on. Also, keep in mind that the last truly northern Democrat to be elected president was Kennedy, and he too faced difficulties in the south, losing Florida, Tennessee, and Kentucky to Nixon and (partially) losing Alabama and entirely losing Mississippi to independent Harry Byrd.
And yes, we need to acknowledge the elephant in the room, which is Obama's skin color. There were some racists who continued to vote Democratic in state and local elections in Arkansas and in other states as well, but the Obama presidency was finally the straw that broke the camel's back for them. As such, it came as no surprise when Senator Pryor lost badly in 2014 to Representative Tom Cotton. Arkansas's other Democratic Senator, Blanche Lincoln, faced defeat even faster. She lost her 2010 reelection bid to Representative John Boozman. It certainly didn't help that Arkansas's Senators supported Obamacare and the Obama stimulus, among other pieces of legislation signed by the president. Like Hillary Clinton, Arkansas's Democratic Senators went from heroes to zeroes. To put it mildly, southern Democrats really didn't like Barack Obama.
Democrats in Arkansas were no more fortunate in the House during Obama's presidency, either. In 2008, Democrats controlled 3 out of the 4 House seats in Arkansas. Only the 3rd District, located in heavily conservative Ozarks, was occupied by a Republican- future Senator John Boozman. Republicans flipped 2 of the 3 seats in the 2010 midterms, and the last seat fell in 2012. Republicans have held on to all 4 seats since then, and in 2016, Democrats didn't even field any candidates for 3 of the 4 districts. Only the 2nd District, which covers Little Rock, is still considered to be somewhat competitive.
Like many other solidly red states, Arkansas still seems to have respect for Democrats at the gubernatorial level, although that too may be fading away. In 2010, incumbent Democratic Governor Mike Beebe swept every single county to win a crushing reelection, despite Republican gains in the Senate and House. Beebe also won almost every county in 2006. However, in 2018, incumbent Republican Governor Asa Hutchinson won reelection in the biggest landslide for any Arkansas Republican, perhaps a sign that even the Governor's office is slipping away from the Democrats. Arkansas's mos famous governor is Bill Clinton, who served from 1978 to 1980 but was defeated by Frank White, only to exact his revenge on White 2 years later in 1982 when he snatched his old job back. Clinton continued to serve as governor until his resignation shortly before became president. Up until 1986, Arkansas governors served 2 year terms, rather than 4; New Hampshire and Vermont are the only states who still elect their governors every 2 years. No Arkansan has been elected president since Clinton, although former Governor Mike Huckabee ran unsuccessfully for the Republican nomination in 2008 and 2012.
So who will win Arkansas?
Joe Biden is not as hated in Arkansas as Hillary Clinton was, but it's unlikely that anything significant could change. COVID-19 has not impacted Arkansas nearly as bad as other states, and the majority of people still trust Trump to see America through the pandemic. Although one poll did say the race in Arkansas is close, no other polls have been released since then. If new polls also indicate a tight race in Arkansas, I will reconsider my evaluation, but for now, Trump has Arkansas locked up.
Overall map:
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