The State of the Election: Delaware- Joe Biden could win majorities in all 3 counties in his home state, something no Democrat has done since 1976.
For our next state, we head west from New Jersey, across the Delaware river, to another safely blue state whose favorite son is the Democratic nominee. Most schoolchildren know Delaware as being the first state to ratify the Constitution, while most business people know Delaware as being a corporate tax haven. While Trump narrowed the margins in Delaware in 2016, Joe Biden is all but certain to win his home state in a landslide this time around.
How has (this state) voted in the past, and how do the different regions of (this state) vote?
For the past 30 years or so, Delaware has been solidly Democratic. Delaware is too small to have "regions" so to speak, but the topography is pretty uniform throughout the state, unlike New Jersey. Delaware has only 3 counties, the fewest out of any state (Rhode Island has 5). The three counties are New Castle, Kent, and Sussex.
Delaware is the first example of a single city determining the outcome for the entire state- namely, Wilmington, whose heavily Democratic urban areas and the surrounding suburbs outweigh any Republican or undecided voters. Wilmington is located in New Castle county, which covers the northern part of the state. No Republican has won New Castle county since 1988.
The state capital, Dover, is slightly less than an hour's drive south of Wilmington and is located in Kent county. Since Dover is not a particularly large city with respect to Delaware's overall populatioin, Kent county serves as Delaware's only bellwether county. In fact, Kent county has voted for the winner of each presidential election 9 out of the last 10 elections. The one exception was in 1992, when they narrowly sided with George HW Bush over Bill Clinton. Prior to that, the last time they failed to predict the winner was in 1948 when they voted for Thomas Dewey over Harry Truman. That cycle could be broken again this November, as Joe Biden seems poised to win Kent county even if Trump is reelected.
The southernmost county, Sussex, is the one reliably Republican county. Although Bill Clinton narrowly won the plurality of votes there in 1996, the last Democrat to win a majority was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Being a mostly rural county and having no real cities within its limits, president Trump would seem likely to win Sussex county like every Republican has in recent years. However, Biden's strong regionalism and the undoubtedly massive Democratic turnout could potentially flip the county just this once.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in (this state)'s political leanings?
While Donald Trump narrowed the margins in Delaware and did win back Kent county, the question now is how large the number of Delaware voters Biden will win back will be. Although one poll showed Trump almost tied with Bernie Sanders in Delaware earlier this year, that same poll gave Biden a substantial lead over Trump. Trump has no intention of contesting Delaware.
When was the last time a Republican carried (this state) and how did he do it?
Like New Jersey, George H.W. Bush easily triumphed over Michael Dukakis in Delaware in 1988. Up until then, Delaware was a swing state and had accurately predicted every election winner since 1948. The party loyalties of their populace was far more elastic back then as well. Keep in mind, at that time, urban areas didn't always translate into Democratic bastions like they almost all do today. People in smaller cities, such as Wilmington, were more than willing to vote for a Republican in 1988.
It also should be noted that Ross Perot possibly, if not probably spoiled a second Bush win in Delaware. However, Bill Clinton's successful efforts to turn the Democratic party into a much more of a "big tent" party have pushed Delaware firmly into the Democratic camp.
When was the last time a Democrat carried (this state) and how did he/she do it?
Hillary Clinton easily won Delaware in 2016. No pundits even suggested that Trump had the slightest chance of victory there. To illustrate how New Castle county carries the entire state, look at this tree map-
If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
The state of Delaware has had two Democratic senators for the last 20 years or so. Delaware's senior senator, former governor Tom Carper, narrowly ousted long-time incumbent senator Bill Roth. Although Roth had served for over 30 years, he was 79 years of age at the time and voters strongly preferred the much more youthful and popular governor Carper. Roth was what one can call a "Rockefeller Republican", which is now a dying breed of Republicans in America. While very conservative on fiscal issues such as taxes, Roth was much more moderate and sometimes quite liberal when it came to other positions- he supported gun control, voted for the Civil Rights Restoration Act, and voted to make Martin Luther King day a national holiday. It is also worth mentioning that the Roth IRA is also named after him. He served alongside Biden for many years, and the two of them developed a close friendship despite being in different parties. Senator Carper was easily reelected in 2006 and won an even more impressive victory in 2012; he even won Sussex county that year. He also easily won reelection in 2018, although Sussex county voted Republican again.
Joe Biden's Senate career started in a similar way to Carper's. In 1972, he unseated two-term senator J. (James) Caleb Boggs. However, the circumstances were different than 2000. Boggs didn't actually even want to run for a third term, but felt obligated to in order to prevent what would be a very nasty primary battle over his seat. Boggs, like Roth, was considerably more liberal when it came to social issues; he voted for the Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act, and voted to confirm Thurgood Marshall to the Supreme Court. When Biden, then only a 29 year old New Castle County Councilman, declared his candidacy, it received minimal attention. Every pundit predicted that Boggs (who had previously served as governor as well) would win in a landslide at first. However, as the weeks turned into months, Boggs's lead in the polls dwindled and dwindled against the charismatic and telegenic Biden, and Biden ultimately won the election by only a little over 3000 votes. This was in spite of Nixon easily carrying the state over McGovern at the same time. Biden's victory was, and still is to this day, one of the biggest upsets in Senate election history.
Biden's subsequent reelections since then have been relatively uneventful, but since Biden stands a good chance of becoming our next president, I will briefly go over each of them-
1978- Biden easily won reelection over his opponent, Sussex county Recorder of Deeds, James Baxter jr, by 17 points. Baxter was and still is pretty much unknown to Delawareans. He doesn't even have his own Wikipedia page, and his death in 2018 received very little attention.
1984- Biden's margin of victory (20.2 points) was even greater than 1978's, despite president Ronald Reagan's concurrent 49 state landslide win over Walter Mondale. Biden's opponent, state representative John Burris, didn't fade back into obscurity like Baxter. Burris served as president of the Delaware Chamber of Commerce and would later try to run for governor in 2000, but lost badly to Ruth Ann Minner, who served as Lieutenant Governor to Tom Carper. Like Baxter, however, Burris was not noteworthy enough to have a Wikipedia page.
1990- Biden's margin of victory swelled to nearly 27 points this time around, defeating Jane Brady, who was an attorney and prosecutor. Despite losing in a landslide, Brady went on to have a very successful career. After serving as Delaware's Attorney General from 1995 to 2005, she served as a judge on the Delaware Superior Court up until she retired in 2017. Brady does have a Wikipedia page.
1996, 2002- These two successful reelections pitted Biden against the same opponent, Raymond Clatworthy. Clatworthy, a successful businessman and military veteran, was able to shrink Biden's margins to 21.9 points and then 17.4 points in 1996 and 2002, respectively. It should be noted that Clatworthy succeeded in flipping Kent county in 2002, which had always supported Biden since he first ran. Clatworthy has since faded back into obscurity, and has no Wikipedia page.
2008- Many forget that Biden simultaneously ran as Obama's running mate AND for reelection as senator. Biden steamrolled his opponent, Christine O'Donnell, by nearly 30 points. Shortly after getting sworn in for a 7th term, Biden resigned to become Vice President. O'Donnell, although a skilled speaker and campaigner, was widely viewed by Democrats and moderate Republicans as being a right wing extremist.
Following her defeat in 2008 to Biden, O'Donnell ran again in the 2010 special election to fill Biden's seat. Pundits all concurred that Republicans had a very good chance of snatching the seat away from the Democrats and thus occupying a seat that hadn't been held by a Republican since the Nixon presidency. The Democratic governor at the time, Ruth Ann Minner, appointed former governor Mike Castle to fill the vacancy created by Biden's departure. Castle was also the lone Representative for Delaware's single congressional district. Castle was heavily favored to win the primary and, as already mentioned, the very moderate Castle stood a good chance of winning the election.
However, in a stunning upset, Christine O'Donnell won the primary. Now a darling of the Tea Party movement, O'Donnell's victory put the Senate seat completely out of reach in solidly blue Delaware. The polls all showed her losing badly to the Democratic candidate, New Castle county executive Chris Coons. Making matters worse, O'Donnell's past was becoming increasingly checkered, with controversies arising over the validity of her college degrees, as well as a litany of financial problems was facing. Although O'Donnell hit Coons hard on pivotal issues such as taxes, she was no match for the state's partisan loyalty and she lost the election by over 16 points. Since then, O'Donnell has faded from the public eye, although she did state that she did not support Donald Trump in 2016.
Coons was subsequently reelected in 2014 with a margin of over 13 points. He is up for reelection again in November. With Biden's presence on the ticket, it is all but certain that Coons will be reelected again, likely in a landslide.
Delaware also has had a Democratic governor for nearly 30 years. Since Tom Carper's election in 1992, no Republican has sat behind the governor's desk. Their current governor, former Congressman John Carney, is up for reelection in November. Like the Senate race, the gubernatorial election is considered to be a shoo-in for Carney. Delaware's lone Representative, Lisa Blunt Rochester, replaced Carney in 2017 after he became governor. She also will win reelection comfortably.
So who will win (this state)?
Obviously Joe Biden, and very likely in a landslide. Biden very well may be the first Democrat to win all 3 counties since Carter in 1976. Here is the map of how each county is likely to vote-
How has (this state) voted in the past, and how do the different regions of (this state) vote?
For the past 30 years or so, Delaware has been solidly Democratic. Delaware is too small to have "regions" so to speak, but the topography is pretty uniform throughout the state, unlike New Jersey. Delaware has only 3 counties, the fewest out of any state (Rhode Island has 5). The three counties are New Castle, Kent, and Sussex.
Delaware is the first example of a single city determining the outcome for the entire state- namely, Wilmington, whose heavily Democratic urban areas and the surrounding suburbs outweigh any Republican or undecided voters. Wilmington is located in New Castle county, which covers the northern part of the state. No Republican has won New Castle county since 1988.
The state capital, Dover, is slightly less than an hour's drive south of Wilmington and is located in Kent county. Since Dover is not a particularly large city with respect to Delaware's overall populatioin, Kent county serves as Delaware's only bellwether county. In fact, Kent county has voted for the winner of each presidential election 9 out of the last 10 elections. The one exception was in 1992, when they narrowly sided with George HW Bush over Bill Clinton. Prior to that, the last time they failed to predict the winner was in 1948 when they voted for Thomas Dewey over Harry Truman. That cycle could be broken again this November, as Joe Biden seems poised to win Kent county even if Trump is reelected.
The southernmost county, Sussex, is the one reliably Republican county. Although Bill Clinton narrowly won the plurality of votes there in 1996, the last Democrat to win a majority was Jimmy Carter in 1976. Being a mostly rural county and having no real cities within its limits, president Trump would seem likely to win Sussex county like every Republican has in recent years. However, Biden's strong regionalism and the undoubtedly massive Democratic turnout could potentially flip the county just this once.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in (this state)'s political leanings?
While Donald Trump narrowed the margins in Delaware and did win back Kent county, the question now is how large the number of Delaware voters Biden will win back will be. Although one poll showed Trump almost tied with Bernie Sanders in Delaware earlier this year, that same poll gave Biden a substantial lead over Trump. Trump has no intention of contesting Delaware.
When was the last time a Republican carried (this state) and how did he do it?
Like New Jersey, George H.W. Bush easily triumphed over Michael Dukakis in Delaware in 1988. Up until then, Delaware was a swing state and had accurately predicted every election winner since 1948. The party loyalties of their populace was far more elastic back then as well. Keep in mind, at that time, urban areas didn't always translate into Democratic bastions like they almost all do today. People in smaller cities, such as Wilmington, were more than willing to vote for a Republican in 1988.
It also should be noted that Ross Perot possibly, if not probably spoiled a second Bush win in Delaware. However, Bill Clinton's successful efforts to turn the Democratic party into a much more of a "big tent" party have pushed Delaware firmly into the Democratic camp.
When was the last time a Democrat carried (this state) and how did he/she do it?
Hillary Clinton easily won Delaware in 2016. No pundits even suggested that Trump had the slightest chance of victory there. To illustrate how New Castle county carries the entire state, look at this tree map-
If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
The state of Delaware has had two Democratic senators for the last 20 years or so. Delaware's senior senator, former governor Tom Carper, narrowly ousted long-time incumbent senator Bill Roth. Although Roth had served for over 30 years, he was 79 years of age at the time and voters strongly preferred the much more youthful and popular governor Carper. Roth was what one can call a "Rockefeller Republican", which is now a dying breed of Republicans in America. While very conservative on fiscal issues such as taxes, Roth was much more moderate and sometimes quite liberal when it came to other positions- he supported gun control, voted for the Civil Rights Restoration Act, and voted to make Martin Luther King day a national holiday. It is also worth mentioning that the Roth IRA is also named after him. He served alongside Biden for many years, and the two of them developed a close friendship despite being in different parties. Senator Carper was easily reelected in 2006 and won an even more impressive victory in 2012; he even won Sussex county that year. He also easily won reelection in 2018, although Sussex county voted Republican again.
Joe Biden's Senate career started in a similar way to Carper's. In 1972, he unseated two-term senator J. (James) Caleb Boggs. However, the circumstances were different than 2000. Boggs didn't actually even want to run for a third term, but felt obligated to in order to prevent what would be a very nasty primary battle over his seat. Boggs, like Roth, was considerably more liberal when it came to social issues; he voted for the Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act, and voted to confirm Thurgood Marshall to the Supreme Court. When Biden, then only a 29 year old New Castle County Councilman, declared his candidacy, it received minimal attention. Every pundit predicted that Boggs (who had previously served as governor as well) would win in a landslide at first. However, as the weeks turned into months, Boggs's lead in the polls dwindled and dwindled against the charismatic and telegenic Biden, and Biden ultimately won the election by only a little over 3000 votes. This was in spite of Nixon easily carrying the state over McGovern at the same time. Biden's victory was, and still is to this day, one of the biggest upsets in Senate election history.
Biden's subsequent reelections since then have been relatively uneventful, but since Biden stands a good chance of becoming our next president, I will briefly go over each of them-
1978- Biden easily won reelection over his opponent, Sussex county Recorder of Deeds, James Baxter jr, by 17 points. Baxter was and still is pretty much unknown to Delawareans. He doesn't even have his own Wikipedia page, and his death in 2018 received very little attention.
1984- Biden's margin of victory (20.2 points) was even greater than 1978's, despite president Ronald Reagan's concurrent 49 state landslide win over Walter Mondale. Biden's opponent, state representative John Burris, didn't fade back into obscurity like Baxter. Burris served as president of the Delaware Chamber of Commerce and would later try to run for governor in 2000, but lost badly to Ruth Ann Minner, who served as Lieutenant Governor to Tom Carper. Like Baxter, however, Burris was not noteworthy enough to have a Wikipedia page.
1990- Biden's margin of victory swelled to nearly 27 points this time around, defeating Jane Brady, who was an attorney and prosecutor. Despite losing in a landslide, Brady went on to have a very successful career. After serving as Delaware's Attorney General from 1995 to 2005, she served as a judge on the Delaware Superior Court up until she retired in 2017. Brady does have a Wikipedia page.
1996, 2002- These two successful reelections pitted Biden against the same opponent, Raymond Clatworthy. Clatworthy, a successful businessman and military veteran, was able to shrink Biden's margins to 21.9 points and then 17.4 points in 1996 and 2002, respectively. It should be noted that Clatworthy succeeded in flipping Kent county in 2002, which had always supported Biden since he first ran. Clatworthy has since faded back into obscurity, and has no Wikipedia page.
2008- Many forget that Biden simultaneously ran as Obama's running mate AND for reelection as senator. Biden steamrolled his opponent, Christine O'Donnell, by nearly 30 points. Shortly after getting sworn in for a 7th term, Biden resigned to become Vice President. O'Donnell, although a skilled speaker and campaigner, was widely viewed by Democrats and moderate Republicans as being a right wing extremist.
Following her defeat in 2008 to Biden, O'Donnell ran again in the 2010 special election to fill Biden's seat. Pundits all concurred that Republicans had a very good chance of snatching the seat away from the Democrats and thus occupying a seat that hadn't been held by a Republican since the Nixon presidency. The Democratic governor at the time, Ruth Ann Minner, appointed former governor Mike Castle to fill the vacancy created by Biden's departure. Castle was also the lone Representative for Delaware's single congressional district. Castle was heavily favored to win the primary and, as already mentioned, the very moderate Castle stood a good chance of winning the election.
However, in a stunning upset, Christine O'Donnell won the primary. Now a darling of the Tea Party movement, O'Donnell's victory put the Senate seat completely out of reach in solidly blue Delaware. The polls all showed her losing badly to the Democratic candidate, New Castle county executive Chris Coons. Making matters worse, O'Donnell's past was becoming increasingly checkered, with controversies arising over the validity of her college degrees, as well as a litany of financial problems was facing. Although O'Donnell hit Coons hard on pivotal issues such as taxes, she was no match for the state's partisan loyalty and she lost the election by over 16 points. Since then, O'Donnell has faded from the public eye, although she did state that she did not support Donald Trump in 2016.
Coons was subsequently reelected in 2014 with a margin of over 13 points. He is up for reelection again in November. With Biden's presence on the ticket, it is all but certain that Coons will be reelected again, likely in a landslide.
Delaware also has had a Democratic governor for nearly 30 years. Since Tom Carper's election in 1992, no Republican has sat behind the governor's desk. Their current governor, former Congressman John Carney, is up for reelection in November. Like the Senate race, the gubernatorial election is considered to be a shoo-in for Carney. Delaware's lone Representative, Lisa Blunt Rochester, replaced Carney in 2017 after he became governor. She also will win reelection comfortably.
So who will win (this state)?
Obviously Joe Biden, and very likely in a landslide. Biden very well may be the first Democrat to win all 3 counties since Carter in 1976. Here is the map of how each county is likely to vote-
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