The State of the Election: New York- People forget that there are over 50,000 extra square miles of the state located northwest of New York City.
When people hear about New York, they immediately think of the Empire State Building, or the Statue of Liberty, or the George Washington Bridge, or Times Square. However, there is a whole state located to the north, rich with forests, mountains, and lakes. New York has 62 counties, including the 5 boroughs of New York City.
How has New York voted in the past, and how do the different regions of (this state) vote?
New York has been safely in the Democratic column since 1988. The growth of immigrants and minorities in the state make it among the safest states for Joe Biden, and for every Democratic nominee in the future. New York's electoral votes are declared for the Democrat as soon as the polls close. It would take too long to talk about all 62 counties individually, but there are some noteworthy counties that should be talked about. Here are the regions-
And for comparison, here is the county map-
New York City is the smallest region by area but the largest by population. A heavily Democratic bastion, 4 of the 5 counties (boroughs) of NYC are solidly Democratic in presidential elections. No Republican has won majorities in New York county (Manhattan), Kings county (Brooklyn), Bronx county, and Queens county in many decades. The last county, Richmond county (Staten Island), is the only battleground county in the region. Much less urban than the other boroughs, Richmond county was one of the few counties to swing from John McCain to Barack Obama in 2012, likely as a result of Hurricane Sandy. However, Richmond county was one of the 20 counties to swing from Obama to Trump in 2016. Normally, flipping 20 counties of a state would signify flipping the entire state, but New York City still puts the state out of reach for the Republican party. Even a familiar figure like Donald Trump hardly made a dent in the state's deep blue armor.
That's not to say that Republicans haven't found success in other parts of the state. Take Long Island, for example. The region only consists of two counties. While Nassau county, which sits right next to Queens, has been reliably Democratic for nearly 30 years, Donald Trump managed to flip Suffolk county, which no Republican had won since 1988.
The remaining 18 counties that Trump flipped all are located in upstate New York. In fact, almost every county in upstate New York swung to the right in 2016 compared to 2012. There were only 2 counties where Hillary Clinton managed to improve on Barack Obama's margins. In West Chester county, which is home to White Plains and is just north of the Bronx, Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama. Both she and Donald Trump own a house in West Chester county; Clinton's in Chappaqua and Trump's in Bedford. In addition, Clinton was able to pull off a larger win in Tompkins county, which is home to Ithaca.
The other counties Clinton won were Monroe county, which is home to Rochester, Onondaga county, which is home to Syracuse, Albany county, which is home to the state capital as the name implies, Schenectady county, which is home to much of the Albany suburbs, Columbia county, which the Albany suburbs also stretch into somewhat, Erie county, which is home to Buffalo, Dutchess county, which is home to Poughkeepsie, Ulster county, which is home to Kingston, Rockland county, which sits directly north of heavily Democratic northeastern New Jersey and has a very high Jewish population, and Clinton county, which is home to Plattsburgh and sits right next to deep blue Vermont, although this was the narrowest win for her.
There were several counties that were extremely close as well- Rensselaer county, which is home to Troy and is also part of the Albany suburbs, was Trump's most narrow win. Trump also eked out very small wins in Broome county, which is home to Binghamton, as well as the bellwether Essex county, which is deep in the Adirondacks and has been a swing county since the 90's. It should be noted that Trump also won Otsego county, which is home to Cooperstown and has accurately predicted the presidential election winner since 1980. Within the Catskills lies Sullivan county, which also has voted for the presidential winner all but twice since 1952. Trump won there as well.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in New York's political leanings?
Trump flipped 20 counties, but New York City will always carry the state for the Democrats. However, without New York City, Hillary Clinton would have only barely managed to win New York. It's possible that Joe Biden may lose New York if it weren't for NYC. However, that would be a mere curiosity, not a concern for Democrats. New York will always be a blue state, even in the biggest Republican landslide.
When was the last time a Republican carried New York and how did he do it?
The last Republican to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984. The key to his victory was running up huge margins in all the upstate counties except for Tompkins, Erie, and Albany. In addition, New York City only gave Walter Mondale a paltry 61% of their aggregate votes, compared to now, with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both winning the city with about 80% of the votes, and Al Gore and John Kerry obtaining similar margins. The reduced margins in the Big Apple, coupled with Reagan's massive crossover appeal to Democrats, enabled him to win the Empire State by about 8%, something that is no longer possible for any Republican to do now.
When was the last time a Democrat carried New York and how did he/she do it?
No one doubted that Hillary Clinton would carry the state where she served as Senator for nearly a decade. Trump's notoriety there brought him little success, as most people in New York chose to vote for who they thought to be a trusted leader over a reality TV star and billionaire. Take away New York City, and Hillary Clinton would only barely have won the state. Here is the tree map, to illustrate New York City's outsized influence over the rest of the state-
If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
New York has been home to the most prominent Democratic Senators in the country for many years. After defeating long-time incumbent Senator Al D'Amato in a nasty battle in 1998, Senator Charles Schumer as risen through the ranks to become the current Senate Minority Leader. Although he is perhaps the biggest Republican boogeyman, his seat is among the most secure in the entire country. Now would perhaps be the appropriate time to talk about the most conservative areas of New York state- namely, the few counties that didn't vote for Senator Schumer in his landslide victories in 2004, 2010, and 2016, and certainly have not voted for a Democrat for president in many decades. In 2004, Schumer won every county except for sparsely populated and deep red Hamilton county, which lies deep within the Adirondacks. Schumer's margins shrank in 2010, but he still won by over 30 points and won all but 3 counties. He lost Hamilton county again and he lost Wyoming county, which, although in close proximity to Buffalo, takes the name of their county to heart and almost votes the same way as the deep red western state they are named after. Schumer also failed to win Tioga county, which is part of the Binghamton metropolitan area but has voted Republican in every election since 1900 aside from 1964. Schumer picked up Tioga county in 2016, but lost heavily Republican Steuben, Allegany, and Orleans counties (all located west of the Fingerlakes and are minimally populated) in addition to Wyoming and Hamilton once more.
New York's other Senate seat has been occupied by Democrats for even longer. Patrick Moynihan held the seat from 1976 until his retirement in 2000. Hillary Clinton left Arkansas to run for the open seat and easily won it, although most of the upstate counties weren't enthused by her, instead opting for her Republican opponent, Rick Lazio. However, Senator Clinton's reelection in 2006 proved to be far more successful- she won every single county aside from Hamilton, Steuben, Allegany, and Wyoming. After resigning to become Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton's Senate seat was open. Then-governor David Paterson appointed Representative Kyrsten Gillibrand to occupy the seat in 2009, and Gillibrand easily won a full term in the 2010 special election for the seat. She did drop a few more counties though- the western counties of Wayne and Genesee voted for her opponent, as well as Putnam county. Right across the Hudson river from Bear Mountain, Putnam county has been the only reliably red county within the increasingly sprawling New York City suburbs. With President Obama on the ticket in 2012, Gillibrand won reelection with over 70% of the vote, only losing Allegany and Steuben counties. Her opponent, Wendy Long, also would run against Senator Schumer in 2016 and would lose by similar margins. Although easily winning by over 30 points in 2018 as well, Gillibrand dropped dozens of counties that she won in 2012, a sign that New York City may start to carry the entire state for the Democrats as time passes.
New York has 27 Congressional Districts, 21 of which are occupied by Democrats. The majority of the districts are clustered in New York City, as seen in the map below-
Democrats picked up 3 House seats in the 2018 midterms. District 11, which covers east Brooklyn and Staten Island, ousted their Republican incumbent. The same happened in District 19, which stretches from the Catskills all the way to the eastern border with Massachusetts, as well as in District 22, which sits directly west of District 19 and covers the cities of Binghamton and Utica. New York City is home to the most entrenched Democratic Representatives in the country. The most famous representative from here and probably the most well-known Congresswoman in America is Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, who managed to upset the long-time incumbent Joe Crowley in the 2018 primary. Her district, District 14, covers the eastern Bronx and northern Queens. There are other Representatives who have become noteworthy in recent years. Jerry Nadler, who is the Chair of the House Judiciary Committee and became a controversial figure during Trump's impeachment, represents District 10, which covers most of the west side of Manhattan and covers part of Brooklyn as well. Eliot Engel, who represents District 16, lost his renomination bid to progressive Democrat Jamaal Bowman. District 16 covers the northern part of the Bronx and the southern part of West Chester county.
New York is one of a handful of states that do not impose term limits on their governors. Their current governor, Andrew Cuomo, has become a global figure as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Throughout April and into part of May, New York state and more specifically New York City was the epicenter of the pandemic. However, new cases in the state have slowed to a trickle compared to the numbers from early spring. Although he has expressed his misgivings, Cuomo is considered to be a potential presidential candidate in the near future. However, even if Cuomo ultimately chooses not to run, he would remain entrenched in the Governor's office until his retirement or death. New York state last elected a Republican governor in 2002, when George Pataki won reelection. Pataki, a moderate Republican, launched a brief presidential campaign in 2016, but it never got off the ground. New York state is not at all likely to elect a Republican governor for the foreseeable future, both their Senators' seats are rock solid, and the state will likely be declared for Joe Biden as soon as polls close, even with the inevitable mountain of absentee ballots.
So who will win New York?
Conversely like Wyoming and other flyover states to the west, the question is how large Joe Biden's margin is going to be, and if he will carry the state anyway without New York City. While many counties deep within the heart of the upstate are solidly Republican, it seems likely that Biden stands likely to at least flip a few counties that Trump won in 2016.
How has New York voted in the past, and how do the different regions of (this state) vote?
New York has been safely in the Democratic column since 1988. The growth of immigrants and minorities in the state make it among the safest states for Joe Biden, and for every Democratic nominee in the future. New York's electoral votes are declared for the Democrat as soon as the polls close. It would take too long to talk about all 62 counties individually, but there are some noteworthy counties that should be talked about. Here are the regions-
And for comparison, here is the county map-
New York City is the smallest region by area but the largest by population. A heavily Democratic bastion, 4 of the 5 counties (boroughs) of NYC are solidly Democratic in presidential elections. No Republican has won majorities in New York county (Manhattan), Kings county (Brooklyn), Bronx county, and Queens county in many decades. The last county, Richmond county (Staten Island), is the only battleground county in the region. Much less urban than the other boroughs, Richmond county was one of the few counties to swing from John McCain to Barack Obama in 2012, likely as a result of Hurricane Sandy. However, Richmond county was one of the 20 counties to swing from Obama to Trump in 2016. Normally, flipping 20 counties of a state would signify flipping the entire state, but New York City still puts the state out of reach for the Republican party. Even a familiar figure like Donald Trump hardly made a dent in the state's deep blue armor.
That's not to say that Republicans haven't found success in other parts of the state. Take Long Island, for example. The region only consists of two counties. While Nassau county, which sits right next to Queens, has been reliably Democratic for nearly 30 years, Donald Trump managed to flip Suffolk county, which no Republican had won since 1988.
The remaining 18 counties that Trump flipped all are located in upstate New York. In fact, almost every county in upstate New York swung to the right in 2016 compared to 2012. There were only 2 counties where Hillary Clinton managed to improve on Barack Obama's margins. In West Chester county, which is home to White Plains and is just north of the Bronx, Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama. Both she and Donald Trump own a house in West Chester county; Clinton's in Chappaqua and Trump's in Bedford. In addition, Clinton was able to pull off a larger win in Tompkins county, which is home to Ithaca.
The other counties Clinton won were Monroe county, which is home to Rochester, Onondaga county, which is home to Syracuse, Albany county, which is home to the state capital as the name implies, Schenectady county, which is home to much of the Albany suburbs, Columbia county, which the Albany suburbs also stretch into somewhat, Erie county, which is home to Buffalo, Dutchess county, which is home to Poughkeepsie, Ulster county, which is home to Kingston, Rockland county, which sits directly north of heavily Democratic northeastern New Jersey and has a very high Jewish population, and Clinton county, which is home to Plattsburgh and sits right next to deep blue Vermont, although this was the narrowest win for her.
There were several counties that were extremely close as well- Rensselaer county, which is home to Troy and is also part of the Albany suburbs, was Trump's most narrow win. Trump also eked out very small wins in Broome county, which is home to Binghamton, as well as the bellwether Essex county, which is deep in the Adirondacks and has been a swing county since the 90's. It should be noted that Trump also won Otsego county, which is home to Cooperstown and has accurately predicted the presidential election winner since 1980. Within the Catskills lies Sullivan county, which also has voted for the presidential winner all but twice since 1952. Trump won there as well.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in New York's political leanings?
Trump flipped 20 counties, but New York City will always carry the state for the Democrats. However, without New York City, Hillary Clinton would have only barely managed to win New York. It's possible that Joe Biden may lose New York if it weren't for NYC. However, that would be a mere curiosity, not a concern for Democrats. New York will always be a blue state, even in the biggest Republican landslide.
When was the last time a Republican carried New York and how did he do it?
The last Republican to win New York was Ronald Reagan in 1984. The key to his victory was running up huge margins in all the upstate counties except for Tompkins, Erie, and Albany. In addition, New York City only gave Walter Mondale a paltry 61% of their aggregate votes, compared to now, with both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama both winning the city with about 80% of the votes, and Al Gore and John Kerry obtaining similar margins. The reduced margins in the Big Apple, coupled with Reagan's massive crossover appeal to Democrats, enabled him to win the Empire State by about 8%, something that is no longer possible for any Republican to do now.
When was the last time a Democrat carried New York and how did he/she do it?
No one doubted that Hillary Clinton would carry the state where she served as Senator for nearly a decade. Trump's notoriety there brought him little success, as most people in New York chose to vote for who they thought to be a trusted leader over a reality TV star and billionaire. Take away New York City, and Hillary Clinton would only barely have won the state. Here is the tree map, to illustrate New York City's outsized influence over the rest of the state-
If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
New York has been home to the most prominent Democratic Senators in the country for many years. After defeating long-time incumbent Senator Al D'Amato in a nasty battle in 1998, Senator Charles Schumer as risen through the ranks to become the current Senate Minority Leader. Although he is perhaps the biggest Republican boogeyman, his seat is among the most secure in the entire country. Now would perhaps be the appropriate time to talk about the most conservative areas of New York state- namely, the few counties that didn't vote for Senator Schumer in his landslide victories in 2004, 2010, and 2016, and certainly have not voted for a Democrat for president in many decades. In 2004, Schumer won every county except for sparsely populated and deep red Hamilton county, which lies deep within the Adirondacks. Schumer's margins shrank in 2010, but he still won by over 30 points and won all but 3 counties. He lost Hamilton county again and he lost Wyoming county, which, although in close proximity to Buffalo, takes the name of their county to heart and almost votes the same way as the deep red western state they are named after. Schumer also failed to win Tioga county, which is part of the Binghamton metropolitan area but has voted Republican in every election since 1900 aside from 1964. Schumer picked up Tioga county in 2016, but lost heavily Republican Steuben, Allegany, and Orleans counties (all located west of the Fingerlakes and are minimally populated) in addition to Wyoming and Hamilton once more.
New York's other Senate seat has been occupied by Democrats for even longer. Patrick Moynihan held the seat from 1976 until his retirement in 2000. Hillary Clinton left Arkansas to run for the open seat and easily won it, although most of the upstate counties weren't enthused by her, instead opting for her Republican opponent, Rick Lazio. However, Senator Clinton's reelection in 2006 proved to be far more successful- she won every single county aside from Hamilton, Steuben, Allegany, and Wyoming. After resigning to become Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton's Senate seat was open. Then-governor David Paterson appointed Representative Kyrsten Gillibrand to occupy the seat in 2009, and Gillibrand easily won a full term in the 2010 special election for the seat. She did drop a few more counties though- the western counties of Wayne and Genesee voted for her opponent, as well as Putnam county. Right across the Hudson river from Bear Mountain, Putnam county has been the only reliably red county within the increasingly sprawling New York City suburbs. With President Obama on the ticket in 2012, Gillibrand won reelection with over 70% of the vote, only losing Allegany and Steuben counties. Her opponent, Wendy Long, also would run against Senator Schumer in 2016 and would lose by similar margins. Although easily winning by over 30 points in 2018 as well, Gillibrand dropped dozens of counties that she won in 2012, a sign that New York City may start to carry the entire state for the Democrats as time passes.
New York has 27 Congressional Districts, 21 of which are occupied by Democrats. The majority of the districts are clustered in New York City, as seen in the map below-
Democrats picked up 3 House seats in the 2018 midterms. District 11, which covers east Brooklyn and Staten Island, ousted their Republican incumbent. The same happened in District 19, which stretches from the Catskills all the way to the eastern border with Massachusetts, as well as in District 22, which sits directly west of District 19 and covers the cities of Binghamton and Utica. New York City is home to the most entrenched Democratic Representatives in the country. The most famous representative from here and probably the most well-known Congresswoman in America is Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, who managed to upset the long-time incumbent Joe Crowley in the 2018 primary. Her district, District 14, covers the eastern Bronx and northern Queens. There are other Representatives who have become noteworthy in recent years. Jerry Nadler, who is the Chair of the House Judiciary Committee and became a controversial figure during Trump's impeachment, represents District 10, which covers most of the west side of Manhattan and covers part of Brooklyn as well. Eliot Engel, who represents District 16, lost his renomination bid to progressive Democrat Jamaal Bowman. District 16 covers the northern part of the Bronx and the southern part of West Chester county.
New York is one of a handful of states that do not impose term limits on their governors. Their current governor, Andrew Cuomo, has become a global figure as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Throughout April and into part of May, New York state and more specifically New York City was the epicenter of the pandemic. However, new cases in the state have slowed to a trickle compared to the numbers from early spring. Although he has expressed his misgivings, Cuomo is considered to be a potential presidential candidate in the near future. However, even if Cuomo ultimately chooses not to run, he would remain entrenched in the Governor's office until his retirement or death. New York state last elected a Republican governor in 2002, when George Pataki won reelection. Pataki, a moderate Republican, launched a brief presidential campaign in 2016, but it never got off the ground. New York state is not at all likely to elect a Republican governor for the foreseeable future, both their Senators' seats are rock solid, and the state will likely be declared for Joe Biden as soon as polls close, even with the inevitable mountain of absentee ballots.
So who will win New York?
Conversely like Wyoming and other flyover states to the west, the question is how large Joe Biden's margin is going to be, and if he will carry the state anyway without New York City. While many counties deep within the heart of the upstate are solidly Republican, it seems likely that Biden stands likely to at least flip a few counties that Trump won in 2016.
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