The State of the Election: Wyoming- Even an endorsement from God himself wouldn't be enough for Joe Biden to win this state.
For our 4th state, we pay a visit to the most sparsely populated state in America and, appropriately enough, the most conservative one as well. With no major urban areas and a total population of about 1/3 that of Manhattan island, people from Wyoming have a sense of self-pride and independence. Oh, and most of them have never used an escalator, as there are only 2 of them in the entire state.
Wyoming also had not really produced any noteworthy politicians until 2000 when Dick Cheney became George Bush's running mate and then became Vice President upon Bush's victory.
How has Wyoming voted in the past, and how do the different counties/regions of Wyoming vote?
It's not clear what the actual geographic regions of Wyoming are, but here are two maps. The reason for the second map is because one shows the cities, while the other shows the counties.
Wyoming is much more known for it's natural beauty and its scenery than it is for its people or its cities. Its largest city, Cheyenne, has a population of only a little over 60,000 people. Delving in to each of these regions is somewhat pointless, because they all vote heavily Republican for president, for the Senate, for the House, and right now, for governor as well. However, I will talk about a few counties that break the norm in Wyoming, or don't break the norm even though you'd think it would.
At this point, all but 2 of Wyoming's 23 counties are reliably Republican. The most natural assumption is for people to think that Laramie county in the southeast corner of the state and home to Cheyenne, would be a Democratic enclave. Alas, no- Laramie county has voted solidly Republican since 1964, and Hillary Clinton won less than 30% of the votes there. Perhaps, then, it is Natrona county, which is home to Casper (and the state's only two escalators!), and was a county that Bill Clinton narrowly won a plurality in as a result of Perot splitting the votes? No, Natrona county is even more Republican than Laramie county, as Hillary Clinton couldn't even garner 20% of the vote in 2016. So which is it? The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, Teton county,which is just south of Park county (home to Yellowstone National Park), and is home to Grand Teton National Park. But why is Teton county so liberal? The answer can best be explained by its demographics, in that more than half of the county's residents are college educated, a far cry from the rest of the state. Although Bush narrowly won Teton county in 2000, he lost it in 2004 and the county has been trending more Democratic since then.
It also is worth acknowledging that Barry Goldwater won 8 counties in 1964 despite losing it by nearly 15 points. Those counties are- Teton county (seems ironic), Niobrara county (the most sparsely populated county in the most sparsely populated state), Crook county (currently the most Republican county in Wyoming), Converse county (hasn't voted Democratic since 1932), Campbell county (home to Gillette and is a county very reliant on coal mining and oil, Hillary Clinton only won 7% of the vote in 2016), Sublette county (another very rural county, last voted Democratic in 1936), Washakie county (see Sublette county), Weston county (see Washakie and Sublette counties), and Johnson county (this was Goldwater's best county.)
Wyoming now is pretty much entirely ruby red. Although Sweetwater county was another solidly Democratic enclave throughout the 20th century, it too has gradually transformed into another solidly Republican county. The one swing county in Wyoming is Albany county, which is where the University of Wyoming is located. Bill Clinton won pluralities here twice, and Barack Obama narrowly won it in 2008 as well.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Wyoming's political leanings?
Only that it got even more Republican. Trump could carry Wyoming by upwards of 50% this time around.
When was the last time a Republican carried Wyoming and how did he do it?
Although Trump didn't campaign here, the people in Wyoming detest big government Democrats and Trump won here by essentially doing nothing at all. Like I said, even if God himself endorsed the Democratic nominee, Wyoming will still vote Republican.
When was the last time a Democrat carried Wyoming and how did he/she do it?
Wyoming is one of a handful of "flyover states" that have not voted Democratic since LBJ's 1964 landslide. Johnson won Wyoming mostly because he was in the "honeymoon phase" of his presidency, and Barry Goldwater's policies were considered to be extreme even by the standards of deep red Wyoming. Although Goldwater fared well in the northeastern area of the state, Johnson won almost everywhere else. He ran up huge margins in Sweetwater county, Carbon county (another county that is heavily reliant off of coal), Albany county, Laramie county, and Uinta county (home to the state hospital). He also eked out modest and narrow wins in several other counties, such as Park county, Big Horn county, Hot Springs county, Sheridan county, Lincoln county, Goshen county, Fremont county (where Gannett Peak, the highest point in the state, is located), and Platte county.
Most of the counties Johnson won have not voted Democratic since his victory, although Bill Clinton won pluralities in Carbon and Natrona counties in 1992 in addition to winning Teton, Sweetwater, and Albany counties.
If Wyoming is safely red on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Wyoming has had two Republican Senators for many decades. Their senior senator, Mike Enzi, has served since 1996 when he replaced Alan Simpson. His reelections have all been straightforward. Enzi did announce last year that he is retiring, which leaves his seat wide open. Although the primary will not be until next month, the Republican nominee, and thus the next Senator for Wyoming, will likely be Cynthia Lummis, who served as Wyoming's sole Representative in the House from 2009 to 2017.
Wyoming's junior Senator, John Barrasso, took over in 2007 after Senator Craig Thomas passed away. Although Wyoming's governor at the time, Dave Freudenthal, was a Democrat (more on him in a bit), state law required that a Republican be picked to fill Thomas's place. Barrasso then won the special election in 2008, and then got reelected to serve a full term in 2012. He also was handily reelected in 2018, although his opponent, Gary Trauner, managed to win 2 counties, those of Teton and Albany. No Democrat had ever won a county against Barrasso before.
Wyoming's lone Congressperson is Liz Cheney, the daughter of the former Vice President. Despite the Cheney family's long history in Wyoming politics, Liz Cheney declined to run for Senate, opting to stay in the House. This may have been because Cheney had already tried to primary Senator Enzi in 2014, but failed. However, Cheney was born in 1966, making her still young by political standards. She could be a potential Senate candidate in the future.
Democrats have had better success levels in Wyoming gubernatorial elections. The governorship of Wyoming not been uniformly Republican in recent years; Democrats have had their fair share of successes, most recently in 2002 and 2006. In 2002, the former Attorney for the District of Wyoming, Dave Freudenthal, was narrowly elected governor- winning majorities in Teton, Albany, Hot Springs, Sweetwater, Laramie, Carbon, Platte, and Natrona counties. Even more impressively, Freudenthal was reelected in a landslide in 2006, winning every single county. Despite being a popular governor, Freudenthal has declined to run for the Senate, despite being the only Democrat who could possible win there.
So who will win Wyoming?
People should keep an eye on Wyoming this November, not because it is competitive, but to see if Trump can crack the 50 point threshold of victory. This is because COVID-19 has had a minimal impact in Wyoming compared to other states. The residents there, by and large, likely view the pandemic-related restrictions as an assault on their individual rights and liberties, which may give Trump the biggest win for any Republican in any U.S. state in history. Here is the red/blue map. Teton county is blue, while Albany county is a tossup. Everywhere else is deep red.
Wyoming also had not really produced any noteworthy politicians until 2000 when Dick Cheney became George Bush's running mate and then became Vice President upon Bush's victory.
How has Wyoming voted in the past, and how do the different counties/regions of Wyoming vote?
It's not clear what the actual geographic regions of Wyoming are, but here are two maps. The reason for the second map is because one shows the cities, while the other shows the counties.
Wyoming is much more known for it's natural beauty and its scenery than it is for its people or its cities. Its largest city, Cheyenne, has a population of only a little over 60,000 people. Delving in to each of these regions is somewhat pointless, because they all vote heavily Republican for president, for the Senate, for the House, and right now, for governor as well. However, I will talk about a few counties that break the norm in Wyoming, or don't break the norm even though you'd think it would.
At this point, all but 2 of Wyoming's 23 counties are reliably Republican. The most natural assumption is for people to think that Laramie county in the southeast corner of the state and home to Cheyenne, would be a Democratic enclave. Alas, no- Laramie county has voted solidly Republican since 1964, and Hillary Clinton won less than 30% of the votes there. Perhaps, then, it is Natrona county, which is home to Casper (and the state's only two escalators!), and was a county that Bill Clinton narrowly won a plurality in as a result of Perot splitting the votes? No, Natrona county is even more Republican than Laramie county, as Hillary Clinton couldn't even garner 20% of the vote in 2016. So which is it? The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, Teton county,which is just south of Park county (home to Yellowstone National Park), and is home to Grand Teton National Park. But why is Teton county so liberal? The answer can best be explained by its demographics, in that more than half of the county's residents are college educated, a far cry from the rest of the state. Although Bush narrowly won Teton county in 2000, he lost it in 2004 and the county has been trending more Democratic since then.
It also is worth acknowledging that Barry Goldwater won 8 counties in 1964 despite losing it by nearly 15 points. Those counties are- Teton county (seems ironic), Niobrara county (the most sparsely populated county in the most sparsely populated state), Crook county (currently the most Republican county in Wyoming), Converse county (hasn't voted Democratic since 1932), Campbell county (home to Gillette and is a county very reliant on coal mining and oil, Hillary Clinton only won 7% of the vote in 2016), Sublette county (another very rural county, last voted Democratic in 1936), Washakie county (see Sublette county), Weston county (see Washakie and Sublette counties), and Johnson county (this was Goldwater's best county.)
Wyoming now is pretty much entirely ruby red. Although Sweetwater county was another solidly Democratic enclave throughout the 20th century, it too has gradually transformed into another solidly Republican county. The one swing county in Wyoming is Albany county, which is where the University of Wyoming is located. Bill Clinton won pluralities here twice, and Barack Obama narrowly won it in 2008 as well.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Wyoming's political leanings?
Only that it got even more Republican. Trump could carry Wyoming by upwards of 50% this time around.
When was the last time a Republican carried Wyoming and how did he do it?
Although Trump didn't campaign here, the people in Wyoming detest big government Democrats and Trump won here by essentially doing nothing at all. Like I said, even if God himself endorsed the Democratic nominee, Wyoming will still vote Republican.
When was the last time a Democrat carried Wyoming and how did he/she do it?
Wyoming is one of a handful of "flyover states" that have not voted Democratic since LBJ's 1964 landslide. Johnson won Wyoming mostly because he was in the "honeymoon phase" of his presidency, and Barry Goldwater's policies were considered to be extreme even by the standards of deep red Wyoming. Although Goldwater fared well in the northeastern area of the state, Johnson won almost everywhere else. He ran up huge margins in Sweetwater county, Carbon county (another county that is heavily reliant off of coal), Albany county, Laramie county, and Uinta county (home to the state hospital). He also eked out modest and narrow wins in several other counties, such as Park county, Big Horn county, Hot Springs county, Sheridan county, Lincoln county, Goshen county, Fremont county (where Gannett Peak, the highest point in the state, is located), and Platte county.
Most of the counties Johnson won have not voted Democratic since his victory, although Bill Clinton won pluralities in Carbon and Natrona counties in 1992 in addition to winning Teton, Sweetwater, and Albany counties.
If Wyoming is safely red on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Wyoming has had two Republican Senators for many decades. Their senior senator, Mike Enzi, has served since 1996 when he replaced Alan Simpson. His reelections have all been straightforward. Enzi did announce last year that he is retiring, which leaves his seat wide open. Although the primary will not be until next month, the Republican nominee, and thus the next Senator for Wyoming, will likely be Cynthia Lummis, who served as Wyoming's sole Representative in the House from 2009 to 2017.
Wyoming's junior Senator, John Barrasso, took over in 2007 after Senator Craig Thomas passed away. Although Wyoming's governor at the time, Dave Freudenthal, was a Democrat (more on him in a bit), state law required that a Republican be picked to fill Thomas's place. Barrasso then won the special election in 2008, and then got reelected to serve a full term in 2012. He also was handily reelected in 2018, although his opponent, Gary Trauner, managed to win 2 counties, those of Teton and Albany. No Democrat had ever won a county against Barrasso before.
Wyoming's lone Congressperson is Liz Cheney, the daughter of the former Vice President. Despite the Cheney family's long history in Wyoming politics, Liz Cheney declined to run for Senate, opting to stay in the House. This may have been because Cheney had already tried to primary Senator Enzi in 2014, but failed. However, Cheney was born in 1966, making her still young by political standards. She could be a potential Senate candidate in the future.
Democrats have had better success levels in Wyoming gubernatorial elections. The governorship of Wyoming not been uniformly Republican in recent years; Democrats have had their fair share of successes, most recently in 2002 and 2006. In 2002, the former Attorney for the District of Wyoming, Dave Freudenthal, was narrowly elected governor- winning majorities in Teton, Albany, Hot Springs, Sweetwater, Laramie, Carbon, Platte, and Natrona counties. Even more impressively, Freudenthal was reelected in a landslide in 2006, winning every single county. Despite being a popular governor, Freudenthal has declined to run for the Senate, despite being the only Democrat who could possible win there.
So who will win Wyoming?
People should keep an eye on Wyoming this November, not because it is competitive, but to see if Trump can crack the 50 point threshold of victory. This is because COVID-19 has had a minimal impact in Wyoming compared to other states. The residents there, by and large, likely view the pandemic-related restrictions as an assault on their individual rights and liberties, which may give Trump the biggest win for any Republican in any U.S. state in history. Here is the red/blue map. Teton county is blue, while Albany county is a tossup. Everywhere else is deep red.
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