The State of the Election- Idaho: Another flyover state that is small potatoes compared to other Republican electoral prizes.
Idaho is another state that is best known for its scenery, rather than its cities or its people. If the measure of how conservative a state is is conducted by looking at when the last time a Democrat won a statewide race, then Idaho is the most conservative state in America. North Dakota, has always had at least one Democratic Senator up until 2018. South Dakota also had a Democrat serving as Senator until 2014. Oklahoma elected and reelected a Democratic governor in 2002 and 2006, as did Wyoming. Meanwhile, it's been so long since that happened in Idaho that they have no living former Democratic governors or Senators. They are part of the midwestern bloc of states that have not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, and even then, Barry Goldwater came extremely close to winning Idaho and was Johnson's smallest win. Idaho has always been called for the Republican candidate at the same time that California is declared to be in the blue column: At 11 P.M. EST, as soon as the west coast polls close.
1. How has Idaho voted in the past, and how do the different regions of Idaho vote?
Like many other western "flyover states", talking about how the different regions vote is somewhat pointless because almost every part of the state is reliably Republican, from the mines to the north to the heavily Mormon south. Here is the county map, however-
Almost all of the counties are safely in the Republican column. However, Blaine county, located toward the center of the state, is known for being an outlier in that Democrats have always run up large margins here. Exactly why is unclear, although John Kerry has a home in this county, which obviously helped put him over the edge in 2004. Obama also ran up huge margins in this county in 2008 and 2012. Hillary Clinton won a narrow plurality here because of Evan McMullin's strong third party performance here. The only other Democratic-leaning county is that of Latah county, which is situated on Idaho's northwestern border. Latah county is home to the college town of Moscow, where the University of Idaho is located, thus explaining why it tends to vote Democratic. There is one other bellwether county in Idaho, which is tiny Teton county on the Wyoming border. This is likely because Teton county, Wyoming to the east is a reliably blue county and some of their populace (who, on average, are more likely to have a college degree), spill into Teton county, Idaho. Although Teton county was solidly Republican since 1952, Barack Obama won a narrow majority here in 2008. Mitt Romney flipped it back into the Republican column in 2012, and Donald Trump only won it by a mere 8 votes over Hillary Clinton.
In the 20th century, Democrats have had modest success in garnering votes in northern Idaho, in the Silver Valley region where mining has been prevalent. It should be noted that Bill Clinton won a narrow plurality in Nez Perce county and won a slight majority in Shoshone county in 1996. Both counties, Shoshone in particular, are reliant off of their mining industry. Clinton had fared even better in northern Idaho in 1992; he won a narrow plurality in what was and still is heavily Republican Benewah county, which is home to part of the Coeur d'Alene Native American reservation. Clinton also won a plurality in nearby Clearwater county, which is another county that has a history of mining. 1992 was also the last year a Democrat won Lewis county, which had long been a Democratic enclave before gradually becoming a heavily Republican county. Bonner county to the far north also gave Clinton a slight plurality, although this and perhaps a few other counties are places where Clinton owes his narrow wins to Ross Perot. Michael Dukakis won Shoshone, Latah, Lewis, Clearwater, and Nez Perce counties in 1988 as well.
All of the other counties in Idaho are strongly Republican in presidential elections, and most in state elections as well. Even Ada county, which is home to the Boise metropolitan area, has never been won by a Democrat since 1936. Unlike most other cities, Boise is not a Democratic hub. Although the inner city is pretty liberal, the suburbs are very conservative.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Idaho's political leanings?
None whatsoever. Idaho maintained their status quo of being overwhelmingly Republican, aside from Blaine, Teton, and Latah counties which break the norms.
When was the last time a Republican carried Idaho and how did he do it?
Trump easily won Idaho in 2016, continuing the Republican streak. There just aren't enough Democrats to make Idaho competitive. There haven't been in over 50 years, and the dominant conservative mindset makes this a shoo-in for Trump once more.
When was the last time a Democrat carried Idaho and how did he/she do it?
Lyndon Johnson only barely won Idaho by a little over 5000 votes in 1964. Johnson, as would be expected, ran up huge margins in the northern counties. He won Kootenai county, which is home to the city Coeur D'Alene, and Boundary county, which is aptly named because that's where Idaho's tiny border with Canada is. No Democrat has won either of those counties since then, even when the neighboring counties voted Democratic. Johnson also did very well in Bannock county in the southwest, where the city of Pocatello is located. Bannock county has still voted Democratic in gubernatorial elections, even as recently as 2014. Johnson won the mountainous Bear Lake county, which was the only county to vote for Herbert Hoover over Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, as well as Idaho county, which is almost as large as New Jersey but has less than 1/500th the population. Johnson won several other counties as well, but perhaps it would be prudent to talk about Goldwater's best counties, because that would give some insight into which counties are the most conservative in an already very red state.
While most of Johnson's support was in the northern part of the state, the heavily Mormon southern part of Idaho, by and large, voted for Goldwater. Goldwater's best performance was in Jerome county, where half of the Snake River Canyon is located. Jerome county last voted for a Democrat in 1936. Goldwater also did well in sparsely populated Lincoln county, and also in Cassia county, where many notable Idaho legislators were and are from. At the other side of the Snake River Canyon is Twin Falls county, which too has not voted Democratic since 1936. Goldwater won a bunch of other counties in southern Idaho, but perhaps the most conservative county in Idaho is Clark county, which was the only Idaho county not to vote Democratic in the Roosevely landslide election in 1936. Since its creation in 1920, Clark county has only voted Republican once, in 1932.
If Idaho is safely red on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Absolutely. Idaho has not elected a Democratic governor in 30 years, unlike neighboring Wyoming. It's been even longer since they elected a Democratic Senator. And it's not like the state elections are competitive, either. The results are similar to presidential contests. Let's talk about their Senators first- anyone who believes that homophobia is a coping mechanism for homosexual desires knows who Larry Craig is. In 2007, the 3 term Republican Senator, who was a member of the "Singing Senators" and was known for his vehemently anti-gay views, was caught trying to solicit gay sex in a men's restroom at a Minneapolis airport. He defended himself by saying that he had a "wide stance" when sitting on the toilet, which explained why he was playing footsie with the undercover cop investigating his lewd behavior. "Wide stance" , when Googled, still immediately returns results about Larry Craig. Despite Senator Craig being forced into retirement, Idaho Republicans were unfazed. Former Governor Jim Risch easily won the open seat over his Democratic opponent, Larry LaRocco, in 2008. Risch was reelected soundly in 2014, and his reelection this November should also be smooth and convincing.
Idaho's senior Senator, Mike Crapo, was elected in 1998 when Senator Dirk Kempthorne retired. Kempthorne would later serve as Governor and then as Secretary of the Interior under the Bush administration. Crapo's reelections in 2004, 2010, and 2016 have all been easy landslides for him; Democrats didn't even bother to nominate an opponent in 2004. Ever since Senator Frank Church lost reelection in 1980, no Democrat has ever served as Senator for Idaho.
Idaho has only 2 congressional districts- one in the western half of the state, the other in the east. In 2008, District 1, which covers Boise and the ancestrally Democratic northern panhandle, fell to the Democrats, only for the Republicans to pick the seat back up in 2010. Neither seat is competitive anymore.
Idaho also has not elected a Democratic Governor since 1990, when Cecil Andrus won reelection. Andrus carried all but 2 counties- Lemhi county, which no Democrat since FDR has won, and Jefferson county, home to the city of Idaho falls, but even Richard Nixon wasn't conservative enough for them in 1972; right-wing extremist John Schmitz received over a quarter of the vote. However, Democratic gubernatorial candidates seem to fare much better in Ada county than Democratic Senatorial or presidential candidates do. Other counties also have broken the norm in gubernatorial elections, such as Valley county, where the city of Cascade, as well as the Cascade Dam is located, voted Democratic in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Their current Governor, Brad Little was elected in 2014 and reelected in 2018. There are no term limits, so Little can stick around for as long as he wants, and is guaranteed to be reelected every 4 years.
So who will win Idaho?
Trump is certain to win Idaho, even if Biden were to invest all his time and money there. Although a beautiful state when it comes to its scenery and landscapres, Idaho is very dull in presidential elections. The only real interest is to see who will win Teton county this November- Trump only won it by 8 votes in 2016. In the map below, only Blaine county and Latah county are blue. The white county on the right is Teton county.
1. How has Idaho voted in the past, and how do the different regions of Idaho vote?
Like many other western "flyover states", talking about how the different regions vote is somewhat pointless because almost every part of the state is reliably Republican, from the mines to the north to the heavily Mormon south. Here is the county map, however-
Almost all of the counties are safely in the Republican column. However, Blaine county, located toward the center of the state, is known for being an outlier in that Democrats have always run up large margins here. Exactly why is unclear, although John Kerry has a home in this county, which obviously helped put him over the edge in 2004. Obama also ran up huge margins in this county in 2008 and 2012. Hillary Clinton won a narrow plurality here because of Evan McMullin's strong third party performance here. The only other Democratic-leaning county is that of Latah county, which is situated on Idaho's northwestern border. Latah county is home to the college town of Moscow, where the University of Idaho is located, thus explaining why it tends to vote Democratic. There is one other bellwether county in Idaho, which is tiny Teton county on the Wyoming border. This is likely because Teton county, Wyoming to the east is a reliably blue county and some of their populace (who, on average, are more likely to have a college degree), spill into Teton county, Idaho. Although Teton county was solidly Republican since 1952, Barack Obama won a narrow majority here in 2008. Mitt Romney flipped it back into the Republican column in 2012, and Donald Trump only won it by a mere 8 votes over Hillary Clinton.
In the 20th century, Democrats have had modest success in garnering votes in northern Idaho, in the Silver Valley region where mining has been prevalent. It should be noted that Bill Clinton won a narrow plurality in Nez Perce county and won a slight majority in Shoshone county in 1996. Both counties, Shoshone in particular, are reliant off of their mining industry. Clinton had fared even better in northern Idaho in 1992; he won a narrow plurality in what was and still is heavily Republican Benewah county, which is home to part of the Coeur d'Alene Native American reservation. Clinton also won a plurality in nearby Clearwater county, which is another county that has a history of mining. 1992 was also the last year a Democrat won Lewis county, which had long been a Democratic enclave before gradually becoming a heavily Republican county. Bonner county to the far north also gave Clinton a slight plurality, although this and perhaps a few other counties are places where Clinton owes his narrow wins to Ross Perot. Michael Dukakis won Shoshone, Latah, Lewis, Clearwater, and Nez Perce counties in 1988 as well.
All of the other counties in Idaho are strongly Republican in presidential elections, and most in state elections as well. Even Ada county, which is home to the Boise metropolitan area, has never been won by a Democrat since 1936. Unlike most other cities, Boise is not a Democratic hub. Although the inner city is pretty liberal, the suburbs are very conservative.
Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Idaho's political leanings?
None whatsoever. Idaho maintained their status quo of being overwhelmingly Republican, aside from Blaine, Teton, and Latah counties which break the norms.
When was the last time a Republican carried Idaho and how did he do it?
Trump easily won Idaho in 2016, continuing the Republican streak. There just aren't enough Democrats to make Idaho competitive. There haven't been in over 50 years, and the dominant conservative mindset makes this a shoo-in for Trump once more.
When was the last time a Democrat carried Idaho and how did he/she do it?
Lyndon Johnson only barely won Idaho by a little over 5000 votes in 1964. Johnson, as would be expected, ran up huge margins in the northern counties. He won Kootenai county, which is home to the city Coeur D'Alene, and Boundary county, which is aptly named because that's where Idaho's tiny border with Canada is. No Democrat has won either of those counties since then, even when the neighboring counties voted Democratic. Johnson also did very well in Bannock county in the southwest, where the city of Pocatello is located. Bannock county has still voted Democratic in gubernatorial elections, even as recently as 2014. Johnson won the mountainous Bear Lake county, which was the only county to vote for Herbert Hoover over Franklin Roosevelt in 1932, as well as Idaho county, which is almost as large as New Jersey but has less than 1/500th the population. Johnson won several other counties as well, but perhaps it would be prudent to talk about Goldwater's best counties, because that would give some insight into which counties are the most conservative in an already very red state.
While most of Johnson's support was in the northern part of the state, the heavily Mormon southern part of Idaho, by and large, voted for Goldwater. Goldwater's best performance was in Jerome county, where half of the Snake River Canyon is located. Jerome county last voted for a Democrat in 1936. Goldwater also did well in sparsely populated Lincoln county, and also in Cassia county, where many notable Idaho legislators were and are from. At the other side of the Snake River Canyon is Twin Falls county, which too has not voted Democratic since 1936. Goldwater won a bunch of other counties in southern Idaho, but perhaps the most conservative county in Idaho is Clark county, which was the only Idaho county not to vote Democratic in the Roosevely landslide election in 1936. Since its creation in 1920, Clark county has only voted Republican once, in 1932.
If Idaho is safely red on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Absolutely. Idaho has not elected a Democratic governor in 30 years, unlike neighboring Wyoming. It's been even longer since they elected a Democratic Senator. And it's not like the state elections are competitive, either. The results are similar to presidential contests. Let's talk about their Senators first- anyone who believes that homophobia is a coping mechanism for homosexual desires knows who Larry Craig is. In 2007, the 3 term Republican Senator, who was a member of the "Singing Senators" and was known for his vehemently anti-gay views, was caught trying to solicit gay sex in a men's restroom at a Minneapolis airport. He defended himself by saying that he had a "wide stance" when sitting on the toilet, which explained why he was playing footsie with the undercover cop investigating his lewd behavior. "Wide stance" , when Googled, still immediately returns results about Larry Craig. Despite Senator Craig being forced into retirement, Idaho Republicans were unfazed. Former Governor Jim Risch easily won the open seat over his Democratic opponent, Larry LaRocco, in 2008. Risch was reelected soundly in 2014, and his reelection this November should also be smooth and convincing.
Idaho's senior Senator, Mike Crapo, was elected in 1998 when Senator Dirk Kempthorne retired. Kempthorne would later serve as Governor and then as Secretary of the Interior under the Bush administration. Crapo's reelections in 2004, 2010, and 2016 have all been easy landslides for him; Democrats didn't even bother to nominate an opponent in 2004. Ever since Senator Frank Church lost reelection in 1980, no Democrat has ever served as Senator for Idaho.
Idaho has only 2 congressional districts- one in the western half of the state, the other in the east. In 2008, District 1, which covers Boise and the ancestrally Democratic northern panhandle, fell to the Democrats, only for the Republicans to pick the seat back up in 2010. Neither seat is competitive anymore.
Idaho also has not elected a Democratic Governor since 1990, when Cecil Andrus won reelection. Andrus carried all but 2 counties- Lemhi county, which no Democrat since FDR has won, and Jefferson county, home to the city of Idaho falls, but even Richard Nixon wasn't conservative enough for them in 1972; right-wing extremist John Schmitz received over a quarter of the vote. However, Democratic gubernatorial candidates seem to fare much better in Ada county than Democratic Senatorial or presidential candidates do. Other counties also have broken the norm in gubernatorial elections, such as Valley county, where the city of Cascade, as well as the Cascade Dam is located, voted Democratic in the 2006 gubernatorial election. Their current Governor, Brad Little was elected in 2014 and reelected in 2018. There are no term limits, so Little can stick around for as long as he wants, and is guaranteed to be reelected every 4 years.
So who will win Idaho?
Trump is certain to win Idaho, even if Biden were to invest all his time and money there. Although a beautiful state when it comes to its scenery and landscapres, Idaho is very dull in presidential elections. The only real interest is to see who will win Teton county this November- Trump only won it by 8 votes in 2016. In the map below, only Blaine county and Latah county are blue. The white county on the right is Teton county.
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