The State of the Election: Kentucky- Usually one of the first states called for Republicans on election night; no reason to expect much different this time.
On election night, when millions of Americans turn on their TVs to watch the results unfold, the first thing they often see is Kentucky being called for the Republican candidate. Even Barack Obama, with his indomitable strength in the midwest, could barely make a dent in the Republican dominance in Kentucky in 2008; the state was called for McCain almost immediately. Although Hillary Clinton was shown to be competitive with John McCain here in 2008, Trump won all but 2 counties against her in 2016. While it's hard to imagine Joe Biden winning only 2 counties, he is not likely to improve on her margins much, if at all.
How has Kentucky voted in the past, and how do the different counties/regions of (this state) vote?
Kentucky, in America's modern political history, as been a predominantly Republican-leaning state in presidential elections. Although southern Democrats like Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton were able to carry the state, Kentucky has since shifted hard to the right. Almost the entire state is reliably red at this point. Here is the county map-
There are 120 counties in Kentucky. In 2016, Hillary Clinton only won 2 of them: Jefferson county (home to Louisville) and Fayette county (home to Lexington.) Barack Obama barely fared any better. Even in 2008, as Obama ran up huge margins across the entire midwest, even winning Indiana, Kentucky still went to McCain easily. Obama only won 8 counties. The most notable county he won was Elliott county, which had voted Democratic in every election since the Civil War, without exception. In 2016, Trump flipped the county with ease, marking the end of a long era. It's entirely possible that Joe Biden could win it back, though. As such Elliott county is an interesting bellwether to watch in this solidly red state. Another county to keep an eye on is Franklin county, where the state capital of Frankfort is located. Interestingly, Barack Obama narrowly won this county in 2012 despite losing it in 2008. Although Trump flipped it in 2016, it could easily flip back to the Democratic column this time around. There are a couple of other counties to perhaps keep an eye on as well. Henderson county, which is part of the Evansville, Indiana metro area, voted for Obama in 2008 but flipped in 2012. Rowan county also went to Obama very narrowly in 2008; the county is well-known because their former commissioner, Kim Davis, refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. However, Rowan county too has shifted hard to the right and it's not likely that Biden will pull off a victory here, even in the biggest landslide.
Of course, parts of Kentucky were still loyal to the Democratic party up until very recently. Knott county, which gave Bill Clinton nearly 75% of their votes in 1996, voted Democratic as recently as 2004. However, in 2008, they were turned off by Barack Obama and many of the loyal Democratic voters abandoned ship and voted for McCain. The same applies to Floyd county; the 1992 election saw Bill Clinton take nearly 75% of the county and by 2016, the margins pretty much reversed themselves. Both these counties are located in eastern Kentucky, where many of the coal mines are. As seen in West Virginia, the coal miners used to be devoutly Democratic before the party adopted its environmentalist positions. Still, it's no guarantee that Trump will carry all the counties in Kentucky that he won in 2016. John Kerry managed to pick up a few eastern counties that Bush won in 2000, such as Bath county, Magoffin county, and a few others as well. It's possible that Biden may flip a couple counties, although whether or not he does so is irrelevant.
2. Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Kentucky's political leanings?
The remaining vestigial influence that the ancestrally Democratic areas had in presidential elections evaporated in 2016. As previously Republican-dominated southern states like Virginia and Georgia trend increasingly Democratic, Kentucky has shifted hard to the right, to the point of no return.
3. When was the last time a Republican carried Kentucky and how did he do it?
The complete collapse of the remaining influence of southern Democrats enabled Trump to sweep almost every county, even the ones that had long been held by Democrats during presidential races. Only the counties comprising of Louisville and Lexington voted for Clinton. It should be noted that other large cities in Kentucky aren't nearly as friendly to Democrats. Daviess county, home to the city of Owensboro (third largest in state, population wise), gave Bill Clinton a narrow plurality in 1992 but never has voted Democratic since then. Warren county, home to the city of Bowling Green (the third largest in the state, population wise), has never been won by a Democrat since 1976.
4. When was the last time a Democrat carried Kentucky and how did he/she do it?
Bill Clinton's regional power in the south was powerful enough for him to win narrow pluralities in 1992. The key word here is "narrow." In other words, the Perot factor was definitely in play here. That's not to say Clinton didn't do well- in 1996, he won majorities in over 30 counties (Al Gore only won majorities in 12 counties in 2000, for comparison). Most of Clinton's majorities came from the ancestrally Democratic areas that only recently have abandoned the party in droves. Clinton's best county in 1996 was Knott county, which, as mentioned, was one of the many counties that jumped ship from the Democratic party when Obama rose to power. Clinton's next best county was Breathitt county, where coal mining is prevalent. Despite voting Democratic throughout the entire 20th century as well as 2000 and 2004, the county flipped in 2008 and the Republican margins of victory have only been growing. Again, bear in mind that the coal miners throughout America strongly supported Bill Clinton, as well as almost every Democratic nominee before him in the 20th century. Al Gore, with his environmentalist policies, caused that support to severely weaken in 2000 and John Kerry did little to try and win the support back in 2004. Then, in 2008, the remaining support collapsed altogether, and now the coal miners are maniacally Republican in presidential election, although they still support some local Democrats (Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, for example). Unless Democrats completely upend their environmental positions, states like Kentucky are far out of reach. However, Biden is the first white male to head the Democratic ticket since 2004, so it's possible he may win over some ancestrally Democratic voters.
5. If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Republicans are successful up and down the ballot in Kentucky, except for when it comes to gubernatorial elections. Kentucky's 2 Senators, Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, are more or less entrenched in the state. As Senate Majority Leader, McConnell has been a huge target for Democrats for many years. However, despite his abysmal approval ratings in his state, Democrats have never been able to make much headway against him. Even in 1996, while Bill Clinton narrowly carried Kentucky, McConnell still won reelection by over 10 points over Steve Beshear, who would eventually become Governor. In 2008, despite the adverse effects of the recession, McConnell still was reelected by about 5 points over Bruce Lunsford. However, Lunsford carried over 20 counties that Barack Obama simultaneously did not- the most notable being Fleming county, which McCain won by over 20 points but Lunsford won by 4 votes. Even now, McConnell stands very likely to be reelected, especially with Trump on the ballot. His opponent, former fighter pilot Amy McGrath, almost won a huge upset election in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District in 2018, which voted for Trump by over 20 points in 2016. Despite being a prolific fundraiser, McGrath faces a nearly 90 degree uphill battle to unseat McConnell. A very strong primary challenge from progressive Kentucky House member Charles Booker severely weakened her standing with the Democratic party, and most national Democratic leaders are focused on forcing McConnell back into the minority than actually defeating him at the ballot box.
Rand Paul, whose father is the famous Texan libertarian Ron Paul, has represented Kentucky since 2010. He replaced Senator Jim Bunning, a former professional baseball pitcher. Bunning won his first Senate bid in 1998, when he won the open seat that came from Senator Wendell Ford's retirement. Ford was the last Democrat to serve as Senator for Kentucky. In 2004, Bunning only barely won reelection despite George Bush's concurrent success in the state. Bunning planned to run for a third term until the Republican leadership pressured him to retire, in fear that Bunning may end up losing. Bunning's retirement left the seat wide open again, and Rand Paul was chosen to fill his shoes. In 2016, Paul won reelection with ease. However, his Democratic opponent, Jim Gray, was more successful than Hillary Clinton was at garnering Democratic votes. Gray won 5 counties that Trump won in addition to the 2 that Clinton won. Interestingly, Nicholas county, where the final skirmish of the Revolutionary War took place and where Trump won by over 40 points, narrowly voted for Gray. Marion county, which voted for Trump by over 30 points, also went to Gray. Marion county is the most Catholic county in Kentucky, so it's possible that Biden could narrow the margins there, although winning it outright is still very unlikely.
Kentucky has 6 Congressional Districts, 5 of which are held by Republicans. Only District 3, which covers Louisville, is represented by a Democrat. However, as already mentioned, Amy McGrath almost won District 6, which covers Frankfort and Lexington, in 2018. District 6 is the only district that pundits consider to be a competitive one, and should be a race people ought to keep an eye on, especially considering the district has been shifting in and out of Democratic and Republican control for 40 years or so.
However, the Republican success in Kentucky stops short at the Governor's office, similar to how vice-versa applies to states like Maryland and Massachusetts. Since the Civil War days, Kentucky has primarily been represented by a Democratic governor. The last 2 Republican Governors of the state failed to be reelected. Republican Ernie Fletcher was elected in 2003, but lost reelection to Steve Beshear, a Democrat who had a long history in Kentucky politics. Fletcher's administration was embroiled with scandals, and Beshear won the vast majority of the counties. Now would be the appropriate time to acknowledge what is easily the most Republican county in the state, Jackson county. They have never ceased to vote Republican since the Civil War, except in 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt won the county, as a third party. Even Bill Clinton couldn't win 25% of the Jackson county vote, and was one of Beshears worst counties in his 2007 election and the worst county for him in 2011. There are other counties like this as well- Owsley county, which is the poorest county in the entire nation, has voted solidly Republican since 1864. Cumberland county, which has the fewest number of registered Democrats out of all of Kentucky's counties, also has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1872.
As already mentioned, Governor Beshear won reelection in a landslide in 2011. However, in 2015, Kentuckyans were hungry for change, and thus elected Matt Bevin, a Republican who was a military veteran and an investor. However, Bevin proved to be increasingly unpopular, perhaps most notably for his decision to overhaul teachers' pensions. Governor Beshear's son, the Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear, challenged Bevin for reelection. The polls all indicated that it would be a very tight race. In the end, Bevin was narrowly defeated by less than half a percent and only little more than 5000 votes out of the over 1.4 million cast. Bevin claimed the election was rigged and refused to concede, which alarmed many Democrats and prompted widespread fears of a prolonged and ugly legal battle that may serve as foreshadowing for the 2020 presidential election. Many Democrats expected President Trump, or at the very least, Mitch McConnell, to stand behind Governor Bevin when he challenged the results. However, much to their surprise, McConnell balked, saying that unless the re-canvassing dramatically alters the results, Bevin needs to concede. Trump also stayed mum on the issue, and Bevin conceded to Beshear shortly afterwards. Although Andy Beshear's victory in deep red Kentucky was not too surprising when looking at the polls before the election, it still seems very odd that a Democrat would win in such a deep red state. However, Andy Beshear proved that the Democratic loyalty in places like Floyd, Elliott, Breathitt, Magoffin, and Rowan counties was not extinguished, as he won all of them with ease despite Trump overwhelmingly winning all of them in 2016.
6. So who will win Kentucky?
There's no doubt that Trump will carry Kentucky once more, but people should still keep an eye on all the counties to see if any flip to Biden, or if Amy McGrath manages to win any new counties that had always voted for McConnell. The congressional race in their 6th District should also be watched.
How has Kentucky voted in the past, and how do the different counties/regions of (this state) vote?
Kentucky, in America's modern political history, as been a predominantly Republican-leaning state in presidential elections. Although southern Democrats like Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton were able to carry the state, Kentucky has since shifted hard to the right. Almost the entire state is reliably red at this point. Here is the county map-
There are 120 counties in Kentucky. In 2016, Hillary Clinton only won 2 of them: Jefferson county (home to Louisville) and Fayette county (home to Lexington.) Barack Obama barely fared any better. Even in 2008, as Obama ran up huge margins across the entire midwest, even winning Indiana, Kentucky still went to McCain easily. Obama only won 8 counties. The most notable county he won was Elliott county, which had voted Democratic in every election since the Civil War, without exception. In 2016, Trump flipped the county with ease, marking the end of a long era. It's entirely possible that Joe Biden could win it back, though. As such Elliott county is an interesting bellwether to watch in this solidly red state. Another county to keep an eye on is Franklin county, where the state capital of Frankfort is located. Interestingly, Barack Obama narrowly won this county in 2012 despite losing it in 2008. Although Trump flipped it in 2016, it could easily flip back to the Democratic column this time around. There are a couple of other counties to perhaps keep an eye on as well. Henderson county, which is part of the Evansville, Indiana metro area, voted for Obama in 2008 but flipped in 2012. Rowan county also went to Obama very narrowly in 2008; the county is well-known because their former commissioner, Kim Davis, refused to issue marriage licenses to same-sex couples. However, Rowan county too has shifted hard to the right and it's not likely that Biden will pull off a victory here, even in the biggest landslide.
Of course, parts of Kentucky were still loyal to the Democratic party up until very recently. Knott county, which gave Bill Clinton nearly 75% of their votes in 1996, voted Democratic as recently as 2004. However, in 2008, they were turned off by Barack Obama and many of the loyal Democratic voters abandoned ship and voted for McCain. The same applies to Floyd county; the 1992 election saw Bill Clinton take nearly 75% of the county and by 2016, the margins pretty much reversed themselves. Both these counties are located in eastern Kentucky, where many of the coal mines are. As seen in West Virginia, the coal miners used to be devoutly Democratic before the party adopted its environmentalist positions. Still, it's no guarantee that Trump will carry all the counties in Kentucky that he won in 2016. John Kerry managed to pick up a few eastern counties that Bush won in 2000, such as Bath county, Magoffin county, and a few others as well. It's possible that Biden may flip a couple counties, although whether or not he does so is irrelevant.
2. Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Kentucky's political leanings?
The remaining vestigial influence that the ancestrally Democratic areas had in presidential elections evaporated in 2016. As previously Republican-dominated southern states like Virginia and Georgia trend increasingly Democratic, Kentucky has shifted hard to the right, to the point of no return.
3. When was the last time a Republican carried Kentucky and how did he do it?
The complete collapse of the remaining influence of southern Democrats enabled Trump to sweep almost every county, even the ones that had long been held by Democrats during presidential races. Only the counties comprising of Louisville and Lexington voted for Clinton. It should be noted that other large cities in Kentucky aren't nearly as friendly to Democrats. Daviess county, home to the city of Owensboro (third largest in state, population wise), gave Bill Clinton a narrow plurality in 1992 but never has voted Democratic since then. Warren county, home to the city of Bowling Green (the third largest in the state, population wise), has never been won by a Democrat since 1976.
4. When was the last time a Democrat carried Kentucky and how did he/she do it?
Bill Clinton's regional power in the south was powerful enough for him to win narrow pluralities in 1992. The key word here is "narrow." In other words, the Perot factor was definitely in play here. That's not to say Clinton didn't do well- in 1996, he won majorities in over 30 counties (Al Gore only won majorities in 12 counties in 2000, for comparison). Most of Clinton's majorities came from the ancestrally Democratic areas that only recently have abandoned the party in droves. Clinton's best county in 1996 was Knott county, which, as mentioned, was one of the many counties that jumped ship from the Democratic party when Obama rose to power. Clinton's next best county was Breathitt county, where coal mining is prevalent. Despite voting Democratic throughout the entire 20th century as well as 2000 and 2004, the county flipped in 2008 and the Republican margins of victory have only been growing. Again, bear in mind that the coal miners throughout America strongly supported Bill Clinton, as well as almost every Democratic nominee before him in the 20th century. Al Gore, with his environmentalist policies, caused that support to severely weaken in 2000 and John Kerry did little to try and win the support back in 2004. Then, in 2008, the remaining support collapsed altogether, and now the coal miners are maniacally Republican in presidential election, although they still support some local Democrats (Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, for example). Unless Democrats completely upend their environmental positions, states like Kentucky are far out of reach. However, Biden is the first white male to head the Democratic ticket since 2004, so it's possible he may win over some ancestrally Democratic voters.
5. If (this state) is safely red or blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?
Republicans are successful up and down the ballot in Kentucky, except for when it comes to gubernatorial elections. Kentucky's 2 Senators, Mitch McConnell and Rand Paul, are more or less entrenched in the state. As Senate Majority Leader, McConnell has been a huge target for Democrats for many years. However, despite his abysmal approval ratings in his state, Democrats have never been able to make much headway against him. Even in 1996, while Bill Clinton narrowly carried Kentucky, McConnell still won reelection by over 10 points over Steve Beshear, who would eventually become Governor. In 2008, despite the adverse effects of the recession, McConnell still was reelected by about 5 points over Bruce Lunsford. However, Lunsford carried over 20 counties that Barack Obama simultaneously did not- the most notable being Fleming county, which McCain won by over 20 points but Lunsford won by 4 votes. Even now, McConnell stands very likely to be reelected, especially with Trump on the ballot. His opponent, former fighter pilot Amy McGrath, almost won a huge upset election in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District in 2018, which voted for Trump by over 20 points in 2016. Despite being a prolific fundraiser, McGrath faces a nearly 90 degree uphill battle to unseat McConnell. A very strong primary challenge from progressive Kentucky House member Charles Booker severely weakened her standing with the Democratic party, and most national Democratic leaders are focused on forcing McConnell back into the minority than actually defeating him at the ballot box.
Rand Paul, whose father is the famous Texan libertarian Ron Paul, has represented Kentucky since 2010. He replaced Senator Jim Bunning, a former professional baseball pitcher. Bunning won his first Senate bid in 1998, when he won the open seat that came from Senator Wendell Ford's retirement. Ford was the last Democrat to serve as Senator for Kentucky. In 2004, Bunning only barely won reelection despite George Bush's concurrent success in the state. Bunning planned to run for a third term until the Republican leadership pressured him to retire, in fear that Bunning may end up losing. Bunning's retirement left the seat wide open again, and Rand Paul was chosen to fill his shoes. In 2016, Paul won reelection with ease. However, his Democratic opponent, Jim Gray, was more successful than Hillary Clinton was at garnering Democratic votes. Gray won 5 counties that Trump won in addition to the 2 that Clinton won. Interestingly, Nicholas county, where the final skirmish of the Revolutionary War took place and where Trump won by over 40 points, narrowly voted for Gray. Marion county, which voted for Trump by over 30 points, also went to Gray. Marion county is the most Catholic county in Kentucky, so it's possible that Biden could narrow the margins there, although winning it outright is still very unlikely.
Kentucky has 6 Congressional Districts, 5 of which are held by Republicans. Only District 3, which covers Louisville, is represented by a Democrat. However, as already mentioned, Amy McGrath almost won District 6, which covers Frankfort and Lexington, in 2018. District 6 is the only district that pundits consider to be a competitive one, and should be a race people ought to keep an eye on, especially considering the district has been shifting in and out of Democratic and Republican control for 40 years or so.
However, the Republican success in Kentucky stops short at the Governor's office, similar to how vice-versa applies to states like Maryland and Massachusetts. Since the Civil War days, Kentucky has primarily been represented by a Democratic governor. The last 2 Republican Governors of the state failed to be reelected. Republican Ernie Fletcher was elected in 2003, but lost reelection to Steve Beshear, a Democrat who had a long history in Kentucky politics. Fletcher's administration was embroiled with scandals, and Beshear won the vast majority of the counties. Now would be the appropriate time to acknowledge what is easily the most Republican county in the state, Jackson county. They have never ceased to vote Republican since the Civil War, except in 1912 when Theodore Roosevelt won the county, as a third party. Even Bill Clinton couldn't win 25% of the Jackson county vote, and was one of Beshears worst counties in his 2007 election and the worst county for him in 2011. There are other counties like this as well- Owsley county, which is the poorest county in the entire nation, has voted solidly Republican since 1864. Cumberland county, which has the fewest number of registered Democrats out of all of Kentucky's counties, also has voted Republican in every presidential election since 1872.
As already mentioned, Governor Beshear won reelection in a landslide in 2011. However, in 2015, Kentuckyans were hungry for change, and thus elected Matt Bevin, a Republican who was a military veteran and an investor. However, Bevin proved to be increasingly unpopular, perhaps most notably for his decision to overhaul teachers' pensions. Governor Beshear's son, the Kentucky Attorney General Andy Beshear, challenged Bevin for reelection. The polls all indicated that it would be a very tight race. In the end, Bevin was narrowly defeated by less than half a percent and only little more than 5000 votes out of the over 1.4 million cast. Bevin claimed the election was rigged and refused to concede, which alarmed many Democrats and prompted widespread fears of a prolonged and ugly legal battle that may serve as foreshadowing for the 2020 presidential election. Many Democrats expected President Trump, or at the very least, Mitch McConnell, to stand behind Governor Bevin when he challenged the results. However, much to their surprise, McConnell balked, saying that unless the re-canvassing dramatically alters the results, Bevin needs to concede. Trump also stayed mum on the issue, and Bevin conceded to Beshear shortly afterwards. Although Andy Beshear's victory in deep red Kentucky was not too surprising when looking at the polls before the election, it still seems very odd that a Democrat would win in such a deep red state. However, Andy Beshear proved that the Democratic loyalty in places like Floyd, Elliott, Breathitt, Magoffin, and Rowan counties was not extinguished, as he won all of them with ease despite Trump overwhelmingly winning all of them in 2016.
6. So who will win Kentucky?
There's no doubt that Trump will carry Kentucky once more, but people should still keep an eye on all the counties to see if any flip to Biden, or if Amy McGrath manages to win any new counties that had always voted for McConnell. The congressional race in their 6th District should also be watched.
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