The State of the Election: Vermont- Once a Yankee-Republican state, an influx of people from surrounding liberal states has turned it deep blue.

It's common knowledge at this point that Vermont is one of the most liberal states in America. It has always been the first state called for Democrats on election night, and that won't likely change this time around, even with the influx of mail-in ballots. Ironically, Vermont was one of only two states where FDR failed to win in all 4 of his elections (the other being Maine). 







1. How has (this state) voted in the past, and how do the different regions/ counties of (this state) vote?

From the time of the Civil War and through the better part of the 20th century, Vermont was pretty much an uncontested Republican state. Even Franklin Delano Roosevelt couldn't manage to win it, as even his enormous coalition didn't appeal to Vermonters. Only in the 60's, when younger liberals from surrounding states began to move in, did the state become more competitive. Although Lyndon Johnson crushed Barry Goldwater here in 1964, sweeping every county, Vermont snapped back in 1968, and Richard Nixon won it with ease against Hubert Humphrey. Nixon easily trounced George McGovern in 1972, and Gerald Ford won all of Vermont's counties in 1976 against Jimmy Carter. However, small cracks began to form in Vermont's hard Republican armor in the 1980 election; Carter picked up a few counties despite losing the state. Although Ronald Reagan swept every county in 1984, it became very clear that Vermont's deep red hue was fading very fast in 1988, when George H.W. Bush only won the state by less than 4% and Michael Dukakis won 5 counties. In 1992, the Republican hegemony in Vermont was finally overtaken by Bill Clinton, who won the state by over 15%. Given Vermont's increasing dissatisfaction with the rightward shift of the Republican party and the manifestation of their "southern strategy", it's possible, if not probable, that Ross Perot hindered an even greater Clinton victory. Clinton won the state by over 25 points in 1996. George W. Bush, with his message of compassionate conservatism, managed to come within 10 points of Al Gore's margin in 2000, but John Kerry won Vermont by over 20% in 2004. Barack Obama won by over 35 points in both 2008 and 2012, and Hillary Clinton's reduced margin of 25 points can be attributed to so many people writing in Senator Bernie Sanders on election day. Even if this happens again for Sanders, Joe Biden is still likely to win the state by at least 25%.

Vermont has 14 counties- 13 of which are solidly in the Democratic camp, and one bellwether county. Perhaps the most liberal of Vermont's counties is Windham county, where several towns passed resolutions supporting a potential impeachment of George W. Bush in 2006. No Republican has won this county since 1984, and Democrats have recently enjoyed margins of victory of over 30%; Barack Obama won it by over 40% twice. Chittenden county, home to Burlington, has provided Democrats with similar margins in recent years, and the county was way ahead of its time in supporting the Democratic party. They voted for FDR all 4 times and also voted for Harry Truman in 1948. Although Eisenhower won the county twice, they voted for Kennedy in 1960, Johnson in 1964 (he won every county), and even Hubert Humphrey in 1968. Nixon and Ford took the county in 1972 and 1976, respectively, but Chittenden county was one of the very few counties to flip to Jimmy Carter in 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated him almost everywhere else. Grand Isle county, where the Burlington metropolitan area extends into, has a similar history of Democratic support that is not recent like the other counties. In fact, their voting pattern is almost identical to that of Chittenden county. The state capital of Montpelier is located in Washington county. Both the raw total and the percentage of Republican votes in this county have been declining since 2000. Donald Trump only won 25% of the votes here, and it's very possible he won't even manage to get 20% this time around. The same applies in Addison county, where the Battle of Bennington was fought nearly 250 years ago. The rest of the counties have displayed similar voting patterns, except for the county in the northeastern corner, Essex county, which is the only swing county in Vermont. Essex county has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1980. However, that streak could be broken in November- Joe Biden could easily win the county even if Trump gets reelected, and vice-versa could apply as well. Other northeastern counties were more friendly to Republicans up until very recently- more recent than when Vermont itself became a solidly Democratic county. Caledonia county actually gave a strong plurality to Bush in 2000 (probably because of strong third party turnout), and John Kerry only won it narrowly in 2004 before Obama won it by over 20 points in 2008. A similar situation happened in Orange county; Bush again won a slight plurality in 2000, only for Kerry to flip it back in 2004 with relative ease and Obama to win it by a landslide twice. Bush also won Orleans county in 2000, only for it to flip to Kerry in 2004 and Obama to win in a blowout twice. However, Orleans county, like Rutland county, only barely gave a plurality to Hillary Clinton due to Bernie Sanders' strong third party performance. 


Were there any major changes in 2016 that may foreshadow a change in Vermont's political leanings?

Bernie Sanders siphoned away a large number of progressive voters, which helped Trump narrow the margins compared to Obama's landslides. However, this wasn't nearly enough to even make Vermont remotely close in 2016, as Hillary Clinton still won the state by over 25 points. Joe Biden is not particularly popular in deep blue Vermont either, but he should fare better than Clinton did in 2016. Many Vermonters likely realize that third-party votes are what gifted Trump several narrow wins in key states that he wasn't supposed to win, and thus they likely don't want to even risk the extremely remote chance that Sanders votes could somehow allow Trump to swipe the state. 

 When was the last time a Republican carried Vermont and how did he do it?

Ah, the good old days when the Republicans could simultaneously appeal to the progressive New England states and the conservative south. But even in 1988, it was clear that such an era was ending in Vermont when George H.W. Bush only won by a little less than 4%. Bush was able to win by running up huge margins in Caledonia and Essex counties, and winning 7 of the 12 other counties, 5 with relative ease. Dukakis's victories, in comparison, were all very small. Chittenden and Grand Isle counties only went blue by a few points, compared to the 30+ point landslides that Democrats enjoy there nowadays. In fact, Dukakis couldn't even muster 30,000 votes in Chittenden county, where Democrats have gotten over 50,000 votes since 2008. Dukakis also only got 1369 votes in Grand Isle county, where Democrats have gotten over 2000 votes since 2008- even Hillary Clinton got 2094 votes. These numbers may seem small, but in sparsely populated Vermont, such totals can make a big difference. Like so many other red states from 1988, Vermonters like what they saw and heard from Bill Clinton, and he won the state with ease twice. The complete collapse of the "Rockefeller Republicans", at least at the national level, pretty much has sealed the GOP's doom in most of New England.

When was the last time a Democrat carried Vermont and how did he/she do it?

Although Bernie Sanders managed to obtain a large number of would-be Democratic voters in 2016, it is clear at this point that the Vermont Republicans, who once gave the party so much power there, are either dead, or have long since changed their political affiliations, and don't regret doing so in the slightest. Even with reduced Democratic margins in every county except for that of Chittenden, Trump was only able to flip one of them (Essex) and still lost by over 25 points statewide. Like Massachusetts to the south, the Republican party needs to severely alter their platform or abandon it altogether if they even want an ice cube's chance in hell of winning Vermont.

If Vermont is safely blue on the presidential level, does the dominance of that party cover state and local elections as well?

Again, like Massachusetts, Vermont overwhelmingly votes Democratic in state elections, Senatorial elections, and Congressional elections- but has a Republican Governor. It was no small feat when then at-large Congressman Bernie Sanders won the open Senate seat in 2006. The seat had been held by Jim Jeffords, a moderate Republican who later became an independent after 2000. Jeffords had only been the latest of a long line of Republicans who had held the seat since the Civil War era. However, Vermont's political leanings had ultimately became too progressive even for the most liberal of Republicans. As such, Sanders won the seat in a landslide, marking the end of a long era. The fact that a state that couldn't bring itself to vote for Franklin Roosevelt is now represented by a Senator who identifies as a Democratic socialist should speak volumes as to how the state has changed so much in recent years. Although still an independent who caucuses with Democrats, Sanders rise to fame during his 2016 presidential run has created an even further rift between Democrats and Republicans. Sanders' supporters argue that he has always been a champion of the middle class and the poor, unlike so many other politicians who bow down to corporate power, and that he supports much-needed reforms for America. Republicans and many moderate Democrats, meanwhile, argue that Sanders' proposals would be exorbitantly expensive, and that his views range from eccentric to being communistic. His presidential run in 2020 reopened those arguments once more, which is perhaps why so many older voters ultimately voted for Joe Biden in the primaries.

Vermont's other Senator, Patrick Leahy, is currently the longest-serving Senator in America. Although his first 2 victories, in 1974 and 1980, were very narrow, his victories since then have all been landslides. He reached the pinnacle of his career when he served as president pro tempore of the Senate, making him third-in-line for the presidency after the president, vice president, and Speaker of the House. In 2022, the octogenarian Leahy will almost certainly be considering retirement. Which Democrat will fill Leahy's seat is unknown, as there is the chance that he may choose to run again. However, Vermont Attorney General TJ Donovan has expressed interest in running. 

When Vermont joined the union, they had 8 electoral votes. That number has gradually shrank down to the minimum of 3, as Vermont's population grew smaller and smaller relative to the rest of the country. The Republican dominance of Vermont's shrinking Congressional seats was nearly absolute since the party's founding. The only 2 exceptions were in the 1878 midterms, when independent Greenback candidate Bradley Barlow won the 3rd district. However, Republicans picked the district up again 2 years later. The other time was in the 1958 midterms, when William Meyer, a Democrat, won the at-large district. But he only held the seat for 2 years also. Only in the 1990 midterms did Bernie Sanders, an independent, win the lone seat and keep control of it until becoming Senator in 2007. Their current Congressman, Peter Welch, has won his last several elections by upwards of 40%, and should obtain a similar margin this time around.

Like many other New England states, Vermont still has competitive gubernatorial races. In fact, the Governor's seat has been alternating between both parties for nearly 60 years. None of them are particularly noteworthy, except for Howard Dean, who served from 1991 to 2003. Dean achieved national recognitioin by running unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination in the 2004 presidential election. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only 2 states that hold their gubernatorial elections every 2 years, rather than 4. The current occupant, Phil Scott, is another very moderate Republican and he was elected in 2016. Scott is pro-choice, supports gay marriage, supports gun control, legalized marijuana, and supports mandatory healthcare. This enabled him to win the election 2016 despite Hillary Clinton simultaneously carrying the state by 25%, and in 2018 by a larger margin despite Bernie Sanders simultaneously winning reelection to the Senate by almost 40 points. Scott has even announced that he is refusing to support Trump and that he may endorse Biden, which guarantees another reelection victory for him no matter how much Biden wins the state by.

So who will win Vermont?

The only real interest is to see which candidate Essex county supports, and if that candidate goes on to win the election and keeps the county's streak of predicting the winner alive. Everywhere else, Joe Biden will win resoundingly, and it seems very likely that he will improve on the 25% margin of victory that Hillary Clinton got 4 years earlier. Vermont also is still likely to be called as soon as the polls close on election night, despite the influx of mail-in ballots in other states. COVID-19 has barely infected anyone in the state, with a total of only 1578 infections and 58 deaths as of August 26th- the lowest numbers out of any in the state.