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Showing posts from August, 2020

The State of the Election: Vermont- Once a Yankee-Republican state, an influx of people from surrounding liberal states has turned it deep blue.

It's common knowledge at this point that Vermont is one of the most liberal states in America. It has always been the first state called for Democrats on election night, and that won't likely change this time around, even with the influx of mail-in ballots. Ironically, Vermont was one of only two states where FDR failed to win in all 4 of his elections (the other being Maine).  1. How has (this state) voted in the past, and how do the different regions/ counties of (this state) vote? From the time of the Civil War and through the better part of the 20th century, Vermont was pretty much an uncontested Republican state. Even Franklin Delano Roosevelt couldn't manage to win it, as even his enormous coalition didn't appeal to Vermonters. Only in the 60's, when younger liberals from surrounding states began to move in, did the state become more competitive. Although Lyndon Johnson crushed Barry Goldwater here in 1964, sweeping every county, Vermont snapped back

The State of the Election: Kentucky- Usually one of the first states called for Republicans on election night; no reason to expect much different this time.

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On election night, when millions of Americans turn on their TVs to watch the results unfold, the first thing they often see is Kentucky being called for the Republican candidate. Even Barack Obama, with his indomitable strength in the midwest, could barely make a dent in the Republican dominance in Kentucky in 2008; the state was called for McCain almost immediately. Although Hillary Clinton was shown to be competitive with John McCain here in 2008, Trump won all but 2 counties against her in 2016. While it's hard to imagine Joe Biden winning only 2 counties, he is not likely to improve on her margins much, if at all. How has Kentucky voted in the past, and how do the different counties/regions of (this state) vote? Kentucky, in America's modern political history, as been a predominantly Republican-leaning state in presidential elections. Although southern Democrats like Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton were able to carry the state, Kentucky has since shifted

The State of the Election: Massachusetts- Every Democratic candidate since Bill Clinton has swept every county; Biden is very likely to do the same.

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Deep in the heart of liberal New England, the Bay State has been the most resolutely Democratic state in the past 30 years. No Republican since George H.W. Bush has won a single county in a presidential election. Massachusetts is also famous for being the only state to support George McGovern in Nixon's 49 state landslide in 1972. Even in colonial times, Massachusetts has been known for its progressivism- the first shots of the American Revolution were fired here, Massachusetts was one of the first states to ban slavery, and the state is home to the most elite and prestigious colleges in the country. Massachusetts has produced numerous families who have created political dynasties- from the Adams (Samuel, John and John Quincy) family in the 1800s, to the Kennedy's and the Bush's in the 20th century. Although many Massachusetts politicians have attempted to become president, few have been successful. Perhaps curiously, no president from Massachusetts has ever been reelected

The State of the Election- Idaho: Another flyover state that is small potatoes compared to other Republican electoral prizes.

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Idaho is another state that is best known for its scenery, rather than its cities or its people. If the measure of how conservative a state is is conducted by looking at when the last time a Democrat won a statewide race, then Idaho is the most conservative state in America. North Dakota, has always had at least one Democratic Senator up until 2018. South Dakota also had a Democrat serving as Senator until 2014. Oklahoma elected and reelected a Democratic governor in 2002 and 2006, as did Wyoming. Meanwhile, it's been so long since that happened in Idaho that they have no living former Democratic governors or Senators. They are part of the midwestern bloc of states that have not voted Democratic in a presidential election since 1964, and even then, Barry Goldwater came extremely close to winning Idaho and was Johnson's smallest win. Idaho has always been called for the Republican candidate at the same time that California is declared to be in the blue column: At 11 P.M. EST, as

The State of the Election: West Virginia- An ancestrally Democratic state that has turned into a solidly Republican haven.

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West Virginia provided Trump with a 42 point win 4 years ago- his second highest margin of victory in 2016 (Wyoming was first). The impact of COVID-19 has been very mild in West Virginia, unlike most of the other states on or near the east coast. Although winning by over 40 points again would be surprising, Trump is in a good position to win every county in the state once more- something Mitt Romney accomplished in 2012 as well. Perhaps the most populist state in the union, West Virginians clearly vote on which presidential candidate is specifically better for West Virginia, more than they vote for which candidate they feel is best for America. As such, Trump's strong populist message and his "Make America Great Again" slogan reverberated deeply through the West Virginia mountains.  How has West Virginia voted in the past, and how do the different regions of West Virginia vote? Throughout the 20th century, West Virginia could be counted on to give their electoral vote